EXCLUSIVE: Ron DeSantis has a better chance than Donald Trump of beating Joe Biden than in 2024, according to DailyMail.com poll – but Mike Pence beats ALL of them among independent voters
- DailyMail.com/JL Partners poll shows Biden would beat Republican challengers
- But Ron DeSantis would push him closest in 2024, trailing 43-44%
- Former President Donald Trump would lose 46-44%
President Joe Biden would beat his Republican challenger, whoever he is, if the general election were held tomorrow – but Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would lead him closer than former President Donald Trump, according to a new DailyMail national poll .com/JL Partners.
Still, with 17 months to go, there’s plenty to play for as Biden trails the independents and the numbers point to an excruciatingly close race.
The poll of 1,000 likely general election voters found that in a Biden-DeSantis matchup, the Democratic nominee would get 44% of the vote to 43%.
Democratic voters appeared more motivated in an election against Trump, giving Biden a 46% lead over the former president’s 44%.
Mike Pence, the former vice president, who entered the race last week, took 38% to Biden’s 41%, while Chris Christie, Trump’s ally turned nemesis, would take just 32% against 39% for Biden.
A new poll for DailyMail.com shows Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is currently in the best position to take on President Joe Biden in the 2024 election.
The contest for the Republican nomination is currently a race between Trump and DeSantis. But the Florida governor’s supporters say he has a better chance in the 2024 general election
Trump is the clear favorite in the Republican primary. Polling averages give him a lead of more than 30 points over DeSantis, with Pence a distant third.
Supporters of the other runners fear Trump will rush to the nomination, but his legal troubles and polarizing manner would then turn off general election voters, allowing a weak Biden opponent to cling to the White House.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners who conducted the poll, said the data supported that analysis.
“There is a clear picture: Trump is the least popular potential candidate with independents and is the only one not to beat Biden with the pivotal group for the next presidential election,” he said.
Biden wins among independents by 5% in a head-to-head with Trump, while other Republicans fare better.
DeSantis overturns those numbers with a five percent lead over the president among people who identify as neither Republicans nor Democrats.
The surprise package may be Pence. He could face hostility from Trump supporters who think he hasn’t done enough to keep their hero in power, and anger from Democrats who see him as a vice president who allowed the worst excesses. of the former president.
Still, the poll found he fared the best among independents, with a six-point lead over Biden.
“The key to the next presidential election will be independent voters: They gave Biden the presidency in 2020 and were crucial to the close House result in 2022,” pollster Johnson said.
‘The candidate that appeals most to this critical group of voters? Mike Pence.
“He leads Biden among independents by 6 points, 38% to 32%.
“What holds back some of his numbers overall is that one in ten Republicans say they don’t know how they would vote — but in an election they would likely side with the GOP.”
Former Vice President Mike Pence with his wife Karen in Waukee, Iowa. He’s a distant third in the Republican race, but our new poll suggests he’s faring better with independent voters.
Pence launched his campaign in Iowa, where he thinks his message will resonate with evangelical Christian voters who are a key part of the state’s Republican electorate.
Christie, who entered the race the same week as Pence, may face the toughest road of all. He has launched in New Hampshire, where he hopes his center-right reputation can appeal to the state’s generally more moderate Republican voters.
Our poll found Republican voters had the least enthusiasm for the former New Jersey governor of the four runners. Only 60% of Republicans said they would support him in an election against Biden.
Pence can count on 72%, DeSantis on 84%, and again Trump’s grip on the GOP is clear with about 90% of Republicans saying they would side with him if he were the nominee.
The poll was conducted June 12-15 and used landlines, cell phones, text messages and apps to reach 1,000 potential general election voters across the United States. It has a margin of error of 3.1%.
