As Democrats regroup after the 2024 elections, some are finding cautious optimism in an unlikely place: state legislatures.
While the party faced disappointing results, such as losing the Michigan State House, it did not face the type of devastating defeat that often accompanies other national elections.
The state legislative results were far from a triumph for Democrats. But they are staying away from the presidential race, in which Vice President Kamala Harris lost every swing state, including states where Democrats made gains in state government or preserved their majorities. Democrats maintained a one-seat majority in the Pennsylvania House, flipped 14 seats in Wisconsin under new electoral maps and broke the Republican supermajority in North Carolina, lending weight to Democratic Gov.-elect Josh Stein’s veto power.
“I just can’t remember an election where we’ve been on the same presidential battlegrounds and been able to maintain the successes we had and mitigate the losses the way we did,” said Heather Williams, director of The Legislative Campaign Arm. state of the Democrats. “To be able to hold our own in Pennsylvania and maintain that majority with the losses mounting, there’s definitely a lot to learn from that.”
It’s not the kind of sweeping dominance Democrats were hoping for this election cycle, but strategists focused on these races say those results show Democrats have figured out what it takes to succeed in the states.
Republicans find the idea ridiculous.
“I don’t know how anyone there could see this as anything other than a total disaster,” said Republican State Leadership Committee Chairman Dee Duncan, who will leave office at the end of the year.
While Democrats acknowledge they fell short, they see this year’s results as laying the groundwork for future cycles, even if they can’t avoid what’s happening at the top of the ticket.
“We know that cycle after cycle we build the best sailboat we can in state legislatures, but we don’t control the wind at the top of the ballot,” said Leslie Martes, chief strategy officer at Forward Majority, a PAC that spent $45 million this year. cycle for supporting Democratic state legislative candidates.
A lesson that down-ballot Democratic groups are emphasizing: They need more money and attention from the rest of the party.
“While we are obviously encouraged by the resilience of Democrats in state legislative elections, we must also be clear about one thing: This overperformance occurred although The efforts of the national party at the state legislative level, no thanks to them,” it reads. a post-election memo from the Democratic group Project States shared exclusively with POLITICO.
Founded in 2017 by former New York lawmaker Daniel Squadron and Democratic donor Adam Pritzker, the group has become a prominent player in Democratic state legislative circles, spending more than $70 million electing Democrats this cycle.
“Simply put, national Democrats continue to overlook and underfund state legislative campaigns,” the memo says.
Williams, chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, had also warned of a lack of investment in the run-up to the election.
It is routine for committees to sound the alarm about money problems, and it is a particularly perennial complaint against them, a level that is often overshadowed.
Democrats attribute a record amount of money spent on these elections as one of the main reasons their state legislative candidates largely bucked national electoral trends. The DLCC received $2.5 million from Harris’ campaign and the Democratic National Committee, a historic sum, although still a small amount considering the enormous political spending occurring at the top of the ticket. The Democratic National Committee also invested more than $260 million in state parties this cycle, money that, in part, went into these down-ballot races.
In a key majority race in the Pennsylvania state House, Democratic state Rep. Frank Burns, who ran for eight terms in a predominantly Republican district, spent more than $4 million on advertising, while Republicans they spent $2.5 million, according to ad tracker AdImpact. Two years ago, total spending was $1.5 million.
In Arizona, outside Democratic groups funneled millions of dollars. The States Project alone spent $9.3 million in the state, according to the memo, which it said was 13 times more than the next largest national funder. Still, despite being outspent Democrats in key racesThe Republicans ended up gaining ground.
The only Democrat to win a seat in the legislature, Rep.-elect Kevin Volk, said he is still focused on his top issues, such as improving public education and affordable housing, but the failure of Democrats to take control “it changes the parameters of what is possible.” “
Now Democrats are looking to the future, because the fight for power in the states is far from over. Because state lawmakers were elected to Congress, there are a handful of vacancies in Virginia and Michigan that could lead to ties in their state legislatures.
Democrats in Michigan face the possibility of a tied Senate. A special election will be held to succeed Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald-Rivet in a swing seat, and if Republicans elect her, they will have to rely on Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist to break the tie.
Virginia will hold a special election in January to elect Democratic Rep.-elect Suhas Subramanyam’s seat in the state Senate. It’s a district Democrats prefer to hold, which will be important given their one-seat majority. If Republicans can flip it, the state Senate would reach a tie, prompting Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears to cast tie-breaking votes. There will also be a special election for a safe Democratic seat in the state House.
A special election has not yet been scheduled for Republican Rep.-elect John McGuire’s seat in the state Senate, although it is expected to remain in Republican hands.
Virginia will also have a high-stakes battle for the state House next year. Democrats won a big victory in 2023, when they took control of the House and claimed full control of the state legislature.
“The dynamics change a little bit from election year to election year, and we’re in new, uncharted territory, but the basics remain the same and we have pretty good results from year to year,” said Virginia Democratic Party Chairwoman Susan . Sweeter.
Swecker said she was encouraged by some of the recent results in Virginia. According to data still being finalized, Harris won 59 of 100 state House districts (just one less than President Joe Biden in 2020) and 25 of 40 state Senate districts, one more than Biden.
But he also warned against drawing too many conclusions from this month’s elections and urged against pointing fingers.
“We’re two weeks away from a momentous election and we’re still trying to figure it out,” he said. “I think the worst thing you can do as a leader is stand there and say, ‘Here are the three things we need to change and the three things we didn’t do right.’ How about we take a second and really look at things and figure out what happened?