It’s dawn when my train enters the Pasazhyrskyi station, punctual as always. This time, however, I am greeted neither by a swarm of Russian drones (as on my last visit), nor by the adenoid hum of an air raid siren (which happens on every visit).
It’s spring and the sun is rising in kyiv. February’s frost-covered sidewalks have been transformed into sun-drenched avenues filled with fleets of laughing teenagers. The war continues, but under a clear sky.
When Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, his generals assured him they would win the war in three days. Some 809 days later, they’re still trying.
On Friday, Putin launched a brutal, surprise attack on Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, overwhelmingly Russian-speaking and just 30 kilometers from the border. Conquering the city, held by the Ukrainians for more than a year, would be a huge propaganda coup. After heavy fighting, the Russians claim they have captured nine villages in the region.
Vadym Skibitsky, Ukraine’s deputy director of military intelligence, was unwavering in a recent interview. “Our problem is very simple,” he told Economist magazine. ‘We don’t have weapons. “They always knew that April and May would be a difficult time for us.”
We in the West must take some degree of responsibility for this growing war fatigue. In the photo: a Ukrainian soldier and a tank.
He is right. Traveling around the country in recent months, I have met many Ukrainians who shamelessly say that they now refuse to die in “Zelensky’s war.”
Morale is low and, with it, the will to fight. People wonder why they should risk their lives when so many people die without results; when so many bribes come from recruiting; and when so many promised Western weapons do not arrive.
They are right. Without NATO support, Russia would undoubtedly have conquered Ukraine. But over time, getting that help has become a never-ending struggle.
When the US Congress last month finally approved a $61 billion military aid package to Ukraine that had been stalled for months due to Republican intransigence, the Ukrainian officials I spoke to were relieved.
But there was also sadness. The delay has cost many lives and the task of pushing back Russia is now much more difficult.
At the front, the troops are happy but cautious. “This, of course, is good news,” says a soldier friend of mine fighting in the east. ‘But we must ensure that kyiv distributes weapons correctly. That provides the right equipment to the right people fighting in the right places. And before it wasn’t always like that.”
Putin understands that the West will give Ukraine enough weapons to keep it at bay, but never enough to push its troops back across the border. Pictured: Destroyed buildings in Bakhmut, Ukraine.
We in the West must take some degree of responsibility for this growing war fatigue. As one Ukrainian official told me in late 2022: ‘If our partners had given us what we asked for in April, we could have finished this in June. If we had gotten what we asked for in July in September, we could have gotten it in October.’
So why didn’t we give the Ukrainians everything they needed? The truth is that the West remains strangely unwilling to win wars. We know we must defeat our enemies, but we want to do so and win their “hearts and minds” at the same time.
In Iraq and Afghanistan we hoped to defeat Saddam (and then the militias that replaced him) and the Taliban respectively, while also bringing the Iraqi and Afghan populations with us. This was naive and we failed on both counts.
A similar impulse is at play with Russia, but made worse by something more pernicious. We are being held hostage by what U.S. sources tell me is U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s near-obsession with “escalation management theory.”
Ukrainian rescue teams work in the courtyard of a residential building damaged by a missile attack in Dnieper
Simply put, Sullivan believes any hint of escalation needs to be “managed.” Consequently, he is happy to arm Ukraine, but not to the point of provoking Putin too much. If this sounds crazy it’s because it is. And that’s why, even before Republicans began opposing the aid packages, much of Western military aid was too little, too late.
There is much justifiable criticism of Israel’s conduct in Gaza, but one observation I have is that Israel is waging a traditional form of war whose goal is total victory. And to do this, the enemy – Hamas – must be completely defeated, not courted at the same time. This way of fighting has become foreign to us.
Putin understands that the West will give Ukraine enough weapons to keep it at bay (until the recent huge delay put even that into doubt), but never enough to push its troops back across the border.
On Friday, Putin launched a brutal, surprise attack on Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, overwhelmingly Russian-speaking and just 30 kilometers from the border.
But we are not going to give up on Ukraine just yet. Two weeks ago, Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron visited kyiv to promise that the UK would provide £3bn a year to Ukraine for as long as needed. Furthermore, he said it was up to Ukraine to decide how to use the British weapons it received, including attacking targets on Russian territory.
Cameron seems to realize that trying to appease Putin only emboldens him. The dictator needs to feel the cost of his murderous imperialism – and that cost needs to be felt most deeply within Russian territory.
For now, however, the push remains in the hands of the Kremlin. On Tuesday, Ukrainians uncovered another Russian assassination plot against President Volodymyr Zelensky, from within the ranks of his own protection unit.
Meanwhile, Russia’s latest war crime involves forcing Ukrainians in conquered territories to serve in the Russian army under the guise of “conscription.” With almost no training, these unfortunates often find themselves in a trench on the front line within a week, fighting against their own countrymen.
We are being held hostage by what US sources tell me is US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s near-obsession with “escalation management theory.”
And who knows what could happen if Donald Trump – who has repeatedly signaled his unwillingness to pay for military aid – takes back the White House in November. It’s time to be realistic. Unfortunately, thanks to Western pusalinimity, Ukraine may already be past the point of winning this war outright. The latest injection of Western weapons should help them stop further Russian advances, but not reverse them. The stalemate seems set to continue.
It remains politically impossible for Zelensky to offer conditions publicly. Would a British Prime Minister one day agree to hand over Manchester or Leeds to the enemy for the sake of peace?
But the status quo is unsustainable. I expect to hear more and more talk in the coming months about a “ceasefire.” Before any such pause in hostilities, kyiv must secure as many favorable facts on the ground as possible, both in terms of territory and the capabilities of its armed forces.
Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron, pictured with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, visited kyiv to pledge that the UK would provide £3bn a year to Ukraine for as long as needed.
As I walk through kyiv’s Independence Square, near where I lived after the 2014 revolution against pro-Kremlin Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, I am struck by the fact that Ukraine is now the forward battalion of Western deterrence.
Let us never forget that it is not only Putin who is deterred when we send billions of dollars of aid to kyiv, but also Xi Jinping of China and the mullahs of Iran.
We are now in a war against transnational autocracy. For now, Ukrainian men are dying on the front so ours don’t have to die.
One day that could change. In the meantime, we must never forget the debt we owe to the Ukrainians. And we must not abandon them. Our own future depends on it.