Monday brings a potentially decisive change to DailyMail.com/JL Partners’ election model: for the first time it has shifted toward “lean Trump” after weeks of indicating the vote is a “disagreement.”
It’s the result of a slew of new polling data that suggests Kamala Harris’ national lead has narrowed or evaporated entirely.
And multiple swing states now show the former president has a narrow lead in most of the battlegrounds that will decide who wins the next election.
When those numbers are fed into our proprietary prediction model, it shows that Trump would claim overall victory in 62.4 percent of our simulations.
At the end of last week it was at 59.8 percent.
The new numbers suggest the momentum is with him, not the vice president, and changes the overall result from “leaning” to “leaning toward Trump.”
Still, with Harris with a nearly 40 percent chance of victory, it means the election could still be one of the closest in history.
With three weeks left in the campaign, there is a lot at stake.
Callum Hunter, a data scientist at JL Partners, said key polls included New York Times polls that gave Trump a five to six point lead in Arizona, Harris had a three to four point lead in Pennsylvania, and a of Redfield and Wilton that showed Trump has a two-point lead in Pennsylvania.
“The race continues to move in Trump’s favor despite a New York Times poll giving Harris the lead in Pennsylvania,” he wrote in his latest briefing memo.
‘This poll was offset by an R&W poll and the underlying national swing against Harris.
‘It is important to remember that this model uses correlations as well as national vote percentages to obtain the average for each state. This means that every state poll affects every other state, so a single poll that’s good for Harris won’t necessarily push things in that state in her favor.
‘The model analyzes the COMPLETE panorama of the country, not specific surveys. The trend continues in Trump’s favor and has shown little sign of changing since it began in late September.
“Momentum is building, and with just over three weeks left, Harris may not have the strength to reverse the direction of voters.”
Donald Trump now has the clearest advantage in our electoral model. In general, the forecast has gone from ‘pull up’ to ’tilt Trump’ as the latest polls show him with all the momentum
Harris entered the race in July when President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign. He enjoyed weeks of positive headlines and record-breaking fundraising.
But a blow in the polls has been gently unraveling and our electoral model has followed a reversal of fortunes, as Trump has overtaken it in recent weeks.
Overall, the most likely outcome has not changed since Friday, with Trump projected to win 312 electoral college votes to Harris’ 226. With 538 in play, the magic number for victory is 270.
The changing dynamics also reduce the likelihood that Pennsylvania (where, according to our latest JL Partners poll, the two candidates are tied, with 47 percent of the vote each) will be the swing state.
Last week was the decisive battlefield in 40 percent of the simulations; now it is decided by 36 percent.
Michigan and North Carolina are the next two states most likely to tip one candidate or the other toward the winning line.
Although Vice President Kamala Harris is now firmly in second place, she still has a nearly 40 percent chance of winning the election. Everything is at stake in the last three weeks
You can explore the latest data in our variety of widgets, which show you how the numbers have moved in each state.
Nevada, for example, has closed in on Trump by 3.1 points this week and is now predicted to win in 60.5 percent of our simulation. That means he’s gone from “throwing” to “leaning Trump.”
In Arizona, Trump’s probability of winning has increased another 2.6 points, keeping him firmly in the “likely Trump” column.
The same goes for Georgia, where there has been a slight movement towards Trump. He has a 72.3 percent chance of winning the state.
And Michigan remains in undecided territory, but has moved toward the former president by 2.1 points.