- Democrats’ lead in early voting declines compared to previous years
- Suggests Republicans Are Listening to Trump Telling Them to Vote Early
As early voting concludes, the statistics of those who have already cast their ballot are raising red flags for Kamala Harris’ campaign, especially in some swing states.
Black North Carolinians who have already voted this year are underperforming compared to the 2020 presidential race, signaling concern about the vice president’s campaign as it relies on this demographic to flip the state from trending red.
So far, the early voting electorate there has skewed older and whiter compared to overall voter registration in the state.
And in Nevada – another battleground – voters from the state’s rural areas are turning out in numbers that indicate the left-leaning state could turn red on November 5.
Republicans have a 40,500-vote lead in Nevada as of Wednesday night, which is 5.2 percent more than Democrats in Nevada.
Alarm bells ringing for Vice President Kamala Harris as Republicans turn out en masse for early voting
As of Thursday, nearly 60 million Americans had already cast their ballots, either during early voting in person or by mail. This means that about a third of the total number of registered voters in the United States have already voted before Election Day.
North Carolina is the most red-leaning swing state in the 2024 election, and the Harris campaign thought they could win it if Black voters elected the first minority women to the Oval Office.
But some Democratic strategists believe that for Harris to be competitive and win North Carolina, there needs to be a 20 percent turnout of black voters.
As of Wednesday, the number of Black voters who voted early in North Carolina was around 18 percent.
Early voter data in the state shows that women and suburban voters are so far outperforming other demographic groups in North Carolina, which could be a good sign for Harris.
Across the country in Nevada, rural Republican voters are far exceeding voter turnout expectations and outperforming Democrats in the left-leaning swing state.
As of Wednesday night, more than 856,000 early and mail-in ballots have been posted, meaning 42 percent of registered voters have already cast their ballots in Nevada.
And Republican turnout in rural parts of the state is giving the party an advantage, with Republicans holding a 5.2 percent lead over Democrats.
Voters wait in line to cast their ballots during early voting in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, on Oct. 25, 2024, as reports emerged that Black voters are not turning out in the same numbers as years before.
Democrats were only able to lead in Clark County, which is where Las Vegas is, by a measly 10 points.
And in Pennsylvania, considered potentially the most important swing state, the number of Republicans voting in early voting has increased.
Democrats maintain a slight lead in early voting nationwide by a margin of 41 percent to 40 percent, according to NBC News tracking.
In previous elections, Democrats were much more likely to vote early as Republicans showed up on Election Day.
Registered Democrats led by 7.5 percentage points during early voting in 2016. That nearly doubled to a 14.3-point gap amid a global pandemic in the 2020 election.
As of Monday, early voting among Democrats was just 3.8 points higher than that of Republicans.