Over the past three years, the Dallas Cowboys have failed to live up to expectations.
They would make it through the regular season and then exit early in the playoffs, unable to hold their own against the more talented and better-coached teams.
Then came this season.
Suddenly, the 12-5 record the Cowboys put together each year between 2021 and 2023 looks different.
Because when November begins, the Cowboys already have those five losses. And this time, only three victories accompany them.
“We need to win a game,” head coach Mike McCarthy said after a 27-21 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. “We have five losses. “I clearly understand where that puts us.”
The deficiencies that dug this Cowboys hole vary.
There’s the league-worst running game Dallas had this week, averaging just 74.1 yards per game and 3.41 per carry.
There’s the second-worst time of possession and second-worst success rate in the red zone the offense has recorded over eight weeks, each also possibly related to Dallas’ nonexistent running game.
The Cowboys defense lost its top two running backs Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence to injuries a month ago, contributing to the Cowboys’ league-worst red zone defense and second-worst points per game allowed through the first eight weeks. .
Greg Olsen as Cowboys allow third TD of days: “No team has more problems with pre-snap movement than the Dallas Cowboys. … That’s something the Cowboys defense has struggled with all year.”pic.twitter.com/3kmp8ZxRob
– Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) November 3, 2024
And while Week 9 standings will require all games to end, the repeated pre-snap penalties that hurt the Cowboys against the Falcons have become the rule rather than the exception.
Oh, and quarterback Dak Prescott missed the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury.
All of this would make many team decision makers think critically about their investment for 2024. Sure, teams should and will try to win in most situations. But mortgaging future years when the current season has already spiraled out of control is a risky venture.
So, as team owner Jerry Jones attempted to sell hope after the Cowboys-Falcons matchup, Jones offered many of his pleas for positivity while also intentionally dropping that the Cowboys could make moves before the trade deadline. the NFL on Tuesday.
Your suggestion raises questions.
“We’ll probably do a couple things this week,” Jones told reporters outside the postgame locker room. “If things go the way we would like them to.”
An appropriate warning.
Is a trade realistic given the Cowboys’ prospects?
The Cowboys have clear areas of need, from the offensive line to running back and nearly every defensive position, including perhaps coordinator. Receiver depth could help CeeDee Lamb.
Kicker Brandon Aubrey is the only excellent player they line up this year.
But as McCarthy’s contract expires in just nine games and injuries continue to mount, the Cowboys must ask themselves: Why are they considering making a trade?
Are you negotiating to improve the 2024 squad? Are you negotiating to improve the team in the coming years? Is there a deal so profitable that they can’t pass it up? Or are they making changes to keep fans interested this season?
All four justifications are difficult to defend.
If the Cowboys are making changes to help a 2024 roster that has suffered injuries to its two best offensive players and three best players on defense, the decision seems shortsighted. At 3-5, the Cowboys have a 4 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Athletic’s playoff forecaster. Competing against the Washington Commanders (7-2) and the Philadelphia Eagles (6-2), the Cowboys’ chances of winning the NFC East are less than 1 percent. This franchise has made the playoffs in each of the last three years. A simple playoff berth, which Dallas seems unlikely to win, does not support the cost of development.
What if the Cowboys had the opportunity to acquire a player who could fill a needed position for years to come? Dallas is set to receive compensatory draft picks after losing several players in free agency this year, so why not use them? This argument would be easier to make if the coaching staff returned in 2025. But the Cowboys’ performance this season does not argue for an extension for McCarthy. Half a year into defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s tenure, Dallas’ defensive woes on Sunday ranged from missed tackles to blown coverages, players colliding with each other and 10 men on the field for an early third down. Zimmer’s 2025 status is in doubt.
If the Cowboys are likely to lead a new coaching staff next season, projecting talent acquisitions for an unknown scheme is bold.
And the likelihood of finding a profitable player at the trade deadline is slim. Sure, some teams are trying to game the compensatory pick system. But more often than not, teams overpay in free agency and at the trade deadline to help their team develop or compete. The Cowboys don’t fit into either box.
Which brings us to the final reason Jones would advocate for a trade: fan interest.
“It takes two to tango, but we have some things in the works,” said Jones, the top salesperson. “We are going to do everything we can at all times to improve this team and, in our opinion, if what you have to give up helps improve it, we will do it.
“We will.”
Determining the severity of Dak’s injury is the next step for the Cowboys
Jones joined several players who said they felt confident entering the Falcons game that Dallas would beat Atlanta. The Cowboys felt like they were a good fit in this NFC contest. In the end they led for just four minutes and 11 seconds, all in the first quarter.
Dallas completed just 22% of third and fourth down attempts (four of 18). The team’s only touchdowns came on a relatively lucky catch and in nearly useless timing.
Hope was not enough to beat a talented and well-planned team.
“I’m truly sorry for all of our Dallas Cowboys fans,” Jones said. “Personally, I am far from dismayed for our team, for this year. Not discouraged. I’m worried.
“We should be worried.”
The Cowboys’ main reason for concern is Prescott’s health. Prescott struggled four times against the Falcons, including a 22-yard gain that marked the Cowboys’ longest run of the season.
The last of his four fights, a five-yard gain, was nullified by a holding penalty. That didn’t save Prescott from hurting his hamstring in what he believes was the opening of that fight. He felt it tighten after that run late in the third quarter, but initially dismissed it as an annoyance that comes with a physical game.
Then, on a stop route, Prescott reached the top of his fall and “felt a pull…something he had never felt before. It’s hard to walk on it at that point.”
He asked to continue playing if he wasn’t worried about a major injury, but the Cowboys’ medical team told him he wouldn’t be able to protect himself. Monday’s images will determine the degree of severity.
“When we get a picture, we’ll know how serious it is,” he said. “It will be hard for me not to be there.”
That decision may be out of your control.
Cooper Rush once again showed his steady demeanor as a backup, completing 13 of 25 passes for 115 yards and the late touchdown after Prescott’s 18 of 24 mark for 133 yards and a score.
But the Cowboys would be hard-pressed to make the playoffs with a healthy Prescott, Lamb, Parsons, Lawrence and cornerback DaRon Bland. Knowing that each of them is battling injuries should deter activity at the trade deadline.
Either way, expect McCarthy to coach for the remainder of his contract. Jones affirmed his faith in McCarthy before taking questions Sunday afternoon. He reiterated his belief when asked.
“I know how hard he works, I like his football mind,” Jones said. “In my opinion, he has an exceptional record as a coach. He is very good with the players. They have a high opinion of him. He has a lot of fire in his belly. So I’m just giving you this. I like the positive aspects I see.
“I’m fine with Mike.”
