One in 25 Britons hospitalized with Covid since December has been vaccinated, No10’s scientific advisers have determined.
Analysis by SAGE shows that 1,800 of the 43,000 patients hospitalized with the virus since December 8 had received at least one dose of Pfizer or AstraZeneca’s injection.
The vast majority got the coronavirus shortly before their appointment or in the fourteen days after, before immunity started.
Researchers who conducted the study reiterated that the findings should in no way be taken as evidence that the vaccines are not working as well as hoped.
Instead, they think people took unnecessary risks after getting their vaccine, or contracted the virus while traveling to and from vaccination centers.
In a meeting on March 12, SAGE called for better communication from the government about how long it takes for the shot to work – normally around 14 days or more.
About 300 of the patients were hospitalized 14 days after their first dose, with SAGE emphasizing that “no vaccine is 100 percent effective.”
They were usually over the age of 80, most vulnerable to Covid and struggling the most to fight the infection.
The expert group said it will analyze in the future whether any of the cases are related to other Covid variants that are feared to make vaccines less effective.
Government analysis has shown that both Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines are more than 90 percent effective in reducing deaths and hospital admissions after both doses.
One in 25 Britons hospitalized with Covid since December had been vaccinated, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies revealed today. The number of Covid hospital admissions among vaccinated people is shown in blue, versus unvaccinated in red
Analysis by SAGE shows that 1,800 of the 43,000 patients hospitalized with the virus since December 8 had received at least one dose of Pfizer or AstraZeneca’s injections. The graphs show how only a fraction of the total admissions are among prickled people
The vast majority of hospital patients contracted the virus in the past few months shortly before their appointment or in the few days after, before immunity started
SAGE was able to work on this by working backwards from the date of recording. The incubation period of the virus is at least five days
The efficacy is about 85 and 80 percent twelve weeks after the first injection, and they prevent about 60 percent of people from spreading the disease.
The new paper, published today as part of the latest installment of studies used by SAGE to advise ministers, looked at a total of 42,788 Covid hospital patients through March 5.
Of those who became ill after vaccination, the mean time between getting their shot and being admitted to hospital was five days.
Since it usually takes five days after infection to get sick with Covid, this suggests that most of them got infected shortly before or around the time they got their shot.
SAGE said it believed many people would have taken unnecessary risks after receiving the vaccine, assuming they were protected.
But they accepted that many vulnerable people may have been inadvertently exposed to traveling to and from their appointment.
Some vaccinated patients were also included for non-coronavirus reasons and were asymptomatic but were later identified as PCR positive.
Writing in the study, the experts said, “ Older and vulnerable people who shielded themselves may have been inadvertently exposed and infected, either through the end-to-end vaccination process, or shortly after vaccination through behavioral changes from which they are immune. ‘
The small number of people admitted with the virus more than two weeks after vaccination were over 80.
People in this age bracket are the most vulnerable to Covid and one of the least likely to build up an immune response to it.
Minutes of the 83rd meeting on March 11 show that SAGE said, “The observation that a significant number of people develop symptoms within a few days of an initial dose may indicate some behavioral change after vaccination (and before immunity develops).
‘It is therefore important that communication about vaccination reinforces the need for safe behavior.
It may also be that some infections occur during the end-to-end vaccination process (including travel to and from vaccination).
Many of those included in the study are said to have been vaccinated at a time when the prevalence in the community was very high.
While the Covid vaccines used in the UK are very effective, no vaccine is 100 percent effective, and some people will be hospitalized even after completing their full vaccination schedule (high assurance).
‘It will be especially important to monitor the prevalence of different variants in this group through sequencing to understand possible immune escape.’
Does Britain Have Enough Stocks of Vaccine for the Second Dose of Humans? France threatens delivery of EU Pfizer injections and AstraZeneca delays from India could halt rollout even LONGER
The delivery of second doses of vaccine in Britain continues in troubled waters as deliveries of both Pfizer and AstraZeneca’s injections are in danger of being stopped by foreign governments.
India has banned the export of the AstraZeneca shot at the Serum Institute so that it can use it on its own citizens, delaying a shipment of five million doses to the UK.
And EU officials are poised to stop shipping Pfizer vaccines – which the UK needs second doses for about 10 million people by mid-June.
Insiders say the supply of AstraZeneca can be done entirely in the UK and that the boost of five million doses from India was not crucial to meet government targets, meaning that the supply from India could be a disappointment rather than a crisis.
But all of the Pfizer doses in the country are made in factories in Europe – the company and its partner BioNTech have large facilities in Belgium and Germany – and international shipping is vital to ensuring people get their second dose.
More than 12 million Pfizer doses have already been sent to Britain, and the NHS will need at least the same number again in June to ensure that everyone gets their booster shot within three months, as promised by the government.
Medics have already stopped providing the vaccine to new patients so that it can prioritize all of Pfizer’s supplies – which are now in danger of coming to a standstill – for the second doses of existing patients.
No10 today stressed that Britain is still on track to meet its vaccination goals, even despite supply problems.
A senior government source said, “We are confident in vaccine targets, offering first doses to all over 50s on April 15 and to all adults on July 31, as well as second doses.” It is estimated that approximately 12 million doses will be delivered in April.
But now there is a prospect of indefinite delays in the jabs with mounting political tensions and other countries facing even more increases in infections.
India is in the throes of a second wave, with vaccines from the Serum Institute so it can immunize its own one billion citizens, and the number of cases is on the rise again in parts of Western Europe, where the rollout has been less successful than in Britain. As a result, politicians are trying to cling to vaccine supplies to use for their own unprotected citizens.
And Moderna’s vaccine, which is expected to be the third and final addition to the UK rollout starting next week, will also have to be imported from Europe, although it is manufactured in Switzerland, which is not part of the EU.