Australia could continue to feel the after-effects of the COVID-19 pandemic for years as more people die from the virus and its impacts.
Some 8,400 more people will die in 2023 than would have been expected under pre-pandemic conditions, according to a report by the Institute of Actuaries published on Monday.
The figure is lower than the 20,000 “excess” deaths recorded in 2022.
Of the additional deaths recorded in 2023, 4,600 were directly due to COVID-19, while another 1,500 were related to the virus.
The institute’s mortality working group said the substantial drop in excess deaths between the two years had not prevented the 2023 rate from being higher than during severe flu years before the pandemic.
“We believe COVID-19 is likely to cause excess mortality for several years, either as a direct cause of death or as a contributing factor to other causes such as heart disease,” said actuary Karen Cutter.
In our view, the mortality rate of the “new normal” is likely to be higher than it would have been had we not had the pandemic.
Rezanur Rahaman, a professor of epidemiology at the Australian National University, said the death rate could continue to be higher as aspects such as vaccination rates and the efficacy of the shots continue to be monitored.
“You could say that excess deaths will continue for some time because it is a highly contagious respiratory pathogen that is not going away anytime soon,” he told AAP.
Mortality rates in Australia could be affected for years by the lingering effects of COVID-19
But University of Technology Sydney biostatistics professor Andrew Hayen said the report found the age-standardized mortality rate in 2023 was almost the same as in 2019.
“We have already seen a considerable decline in excess deaths as measured by the Institute of Actuaries (and) we are likely to see a continued decline in mortality, particularly due to COVID,” he said.
Professor Hayen said it was difficult to attribute the deaths specifically to post-COVID effects, rather than reduced healthcare during the pandemic.
“Many of the deaths in 2022 were likely to be due to mortality displacement and there may also be issues related to pressures on emergency services and delays in standard care, such as elective surgery rates,” he said.
‘However, it is not possible to attribute exactly what proportion is attributable to the possible causes.’
Comparing Australia’s experience with that of 40 other countries, the actuaries’ report concluded that the local excess mortality rate of five per cent between 2020 and 2023 was low compared with global standards, which averaged 11 per cent.