A new poll from Florida shows a much closer-than-expected race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in the state that has been trending steadily toward the red in recent years.
The Morning Consult poll shows the Republican presidential nominee holding a lead of just two points in his home state: Trump has 49 percent and Harris 47 percent, with a margin of error of two points.
This comes after a recent Emerson College poll showed the former president holding a five-point lead in the state, 50 percent to 45 percent over the vice president, showing the race has tightened in the Sunshine State.
This comes as Harris’ campaign has made several investments in Florida in recent months and has argued that Florida is in play in November.
New poll shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by just two points in her home state of Florida
Harris and other prominent Democrats have visited the state several times in recent years to speak about abortion rights after the state passed a ban on abortions at six weeks.
Just days ago, Harris’ campaign launched a “Reproductive Rights for All” bus tour that began in Trump’s hometown of Palm Beach.
This comes as state voters will cast a direct vote on whether to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution this November with Amendment 4.
Trump has said he will vote against the amendment that would keep the six-week ban in place.
Kamala Harris’ campaign launched a ‘Fighting for Reproductive Freedom’ bus tour in Palm Beach, Florida, on Sept. 3, near Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home
The new poll also shows Republican Sen. Rick Scott leading the Florida Senate race by five points in his re-election bid. He has 47 percent support, while Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has 42 percent.
The Real Clear Politics polling average in that race gives Scott a lead of just over four points, showing the race has tightened somewhat as well. An Emerson College poll gave him a lead of just one point.
Rep. Mucarsel-Powell is looking to flip the Florida Senate seat by unseating Republican Sen. Rick Scott. Morning Consult poll gives Scott a five-point lead
Florida was once the most contested state in the country, with 30 electoral votes up for grabs in 2024.
But the state has been trending Republican for the past several election cycles. The last Democrat to win the state in a presidential election was President Obama in 2012.
Trump won the state in 2016 and in 2020, when he beat President Biden by more than three points. In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans won every statewide race, including the gubernatorial race, by more than 19 points.
While Democrats have argued that Florida is in play, especially since the six-week abortion ban went into effect, they have continued to focus the vast majority of their efforts on the seven key battleground states.