Could a chaotic Brexit really see interest rates reach 4%?

There is no laughter: a Brexit without treatment should not be taken lightly, said Mark Carney and the Bank of England has stressed that the interest rates tested did not fall in that scenario.

There is no laughter: a Brexit without treatment should not be taken lightly, said Mark Carney and the Bank of England has stressed that the interest rates tested did not fall in that scenario.

There is no laughter: a Brexit without treatment should not be taken lightly, said Mark Carney and the Bank of England has stressed that the interest rates tested did not fall in that scenario.

The increase in the interest rate last week was not a surprise.

Unlike the rate increases that previously were not enough, the Bank of England did nothing to dispel expectations in the period leading up to the decision.

The fact that banks have increased mortgage interest rates in more than one savings index should not be a surprise either.

We learned a long time ago that the explicit and implicit public support that kept banks and building societies intact through the financial crisis will never be properly amortized.

But in the midst of the excitement of reaching the intoxicating heights of a base rate of 0.75%, there were some interesting elements that remained somewhat buried.

The inflation report brought two of them:

The Bank may have raised rates now, but expects them to increase more slowly in the future than previously thought.

In addition, the Bank has sufficient confidence in the financial system that it is willing to begin to relax the quantitative easing and sell its UK government bonds when the rates reach 1.5 percent, instead of the 2 percent previously planned.

So far so good. But the next day, Governor Mark Carney delivered his punch.

The risk of a Brexit without treatment is "uncomfortably high" and in that situation all bets may be off.

Crucially, however, in rates, those bets could be in the opposite direction to most expectations. He warned that the Bank of England had been testing banks for a big rise in that scenario.

The consensus on what will happen with interest rates in the next three years can be summarized in general terms, whether they rise gently, but then cut back when a recession comes, or we receive a Brexit without treatment and an emergency reduction to 0.5 percent or less, where they will stay for a while.

Despite being included in one of the original warnings of the so-called "Project Fear", the rates that trigger due to Brexit are not in the minds of many people.

So, could there really be a scenario in which a chaotic exit from the EU does not bring boom rates as high as 4 percent with the Bank of England?

Maybe we have a strange monetary policy, the Stockholm syndrome, captivated by the low rates to the extent that we can not even see the base rate rise in an emergency

It seems extremely unlikely.

Such a measure would come to defend the currency, since investors rejected the UK bonds and sold the British investments, while the speculators bet strongly against the pound.

However, it would probably also ruin the domestic economy. A considerable number of homeowners could no longer afford their mortgages, our mountain of personal debt would represent a great risk, and companies would have problems with their loans.

That is a credit crisis and the last one was not too good.

But the 4 percent rates are beyond the realms of possibility?

Maybe we have a strange monetary policy, the Stockholm syndrome, captivated by the low rates to the extent that we can not even see the base rate rise in an emergency, even in what would remain a historically low level.

It is certainly intriguing that the governor of the Bank of England felt compelled to mention it.

The Bank's inflation report showed that rates are now expected to increase more slowly, but the next day Carney warned that a Brexit without treatment could change that situation.

The Bank's inflation report showed that rates are now expected to increase more slowly, but the next day Carney warned that a Brexit without treatment could change that situation.

The Bank's inflation report showed that rates are now expected to increase more slowly, but the next day Carney warned that a Brexit without treatment could change that situation.

The index was a smart move?

Some have been asking for an increase in the rate for a long time, while others believe that we should try to get back to normal before the recession comes.

But those who oppose believe that even this small change to a very low base level of 0.75 percent is a bet too far from the Bank of England.

In this podcast, Simon Lambert, Lee Boyce and Georgie Frost are submerged in the rate increase.

Why the bank raised rates, who will it affect, why interest rates even go up and down, and how did they end up at 0.5% in the first place?

More importantly, how high will they go now and how fast?

Press play up or listen (and subscribe if you like the podcast) in Apple, Acast, Spotify and Audioboom Podcasts, or visit our This is Money podcasts page.

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