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Coronavirus UK: Up to 135,000 can become DAG infected in winter

Up to 135,000 Britons can contract the coronavirus every day during the peak of the second wave in December, scientists predicted.

Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, as well as from Oxford and Warwick University, made the estimate based on immunity of just three months for the average patient.

The truth about immunity is still a mystery – experts have no evidence that patients can be reinfected, but people are only protected from other coronaviruses for a few months.

Academics estimate that a second wave would peak in December with 133,000 new cases per day, if the immunity to Covid-19 turns out to be short-lived and the R rate rises to 1.2.

But the team also warned that there could still be 45,000 new cases a day if it takes longer, as it is believed that so few people contracted the virus during the first attack.

If the British R rate only creeps up to 1.1, the second peak could be shifted to the following spring. In this scenario, the scientists estimate that there may be up to 52,000 daily new cases in April if immunity doesn’t last long.

Government figures show that at the height of the first epidemic in the UK in April, there were officially 5,000 infections per day. But this is known to be a huge underestimate due to a lack of widespread testing.

The Department of Health’s Covid-19 census says only 307,000 people have had the disease in the UK. But large antibody studies have predicted that at least 7 percent of the population has had the virus – more than 4.5 million people.

Up to 135,000 Britons can contract the coronavirus every day during the peak of the second wave in December if immunity to Covid-19 is short-lived, scientists have predicted. Pictured: red represents their three-month immunity forecast; green indicates immunity that diminishes after six months; blue highlights 12 months of immunity; black signals permanent immunity

Up to 135,000 Britons can contract the coronavirus every day during the peak of the second wave in December if immunity to Covid-19 is short-lived, scientists have predicted. Pictured: red represents their three-month immunity forecast; green indicates immunity that diminishes after six months; blue highlights 12 months of immunity; black signals permanent immunity

If the UK R rate only creeps up to 1.1, the second peak could potentially shift to the following spring. In this scenario, the scientists estimate that there could be 52,000 new daily cases by April

If the UK R rate only creeps up to 1.1, the second peak could potentially shift to the following spring. In this scenario, the scientists estimate that there could be 52,000 new daily cases by April

If the UK R rate only creeps up to 1.1, the second peak could potentially shift to the following spring. In this scenario, the scientists estimate that there could be 52,000 new daily cases by April

The study, which has not yet been published in a scientific journal or reviewed by other scientists, used mathematical models to arrive at the prediction.

The model assumed that the R rate will rise to 1.2 in winter, which is a reasonable estimate, as it is believed to be already around 1 in England.

The researchers based their simulation on the theory that natural immunity to Covid-19 lasts only three months in people who have only mild disease or no symptoms at all – which is the case with some seasonal coronaviruses.

They also assumed that people who became ill with Covid-19 enough to be hospitalized were protected from the virus for a year.

In this scenario, the UK would catch between 133,000 and 137,000 new daily infections, with nearly half a million infected people wandering the streets every day.

When people become infected with Covid-19, they produce antibodies, proteins that learn to fight the disease if it ever tries to re-infect the body.

The higher amount of viral load that a person becomes infected with usually determines how sick they will become. And those who get very sick usually have to generate a large antibody response to fight it.

But scientists still don’t know how long these antibodies to Covid-19 will remain in the body.

The researchers warn that even if immunity to the virus is permanent, there could be 45,000 new cases every day, because only an estimated 7 percent of people contracted the virus the first time.

If the UK can keep the R below 1, it wouldn't be able to reach new daily cases by November, the researchers found

If the UK can keep the R below 1, it wouldn't be able to reach new daily cases by November, the researchers found

If the UK can keep the R below 1, it wouldn’t be able to reach new daily cases by November, the researchers found

The immunity to Covid-19 can be lost in a few months

Immunity to Covid-19 may be lost within a few months, according to research.

The findings suggest that, like the common cold and flu, the virus can infect people annually.

This undermines the ideas that herd immunity can be a way to defeat the virus.

King’s College London scientists looked at the immune responses of more than 90 patients and health professionals at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust.

They found that antibody levels peaked three weeks after symptoms and then declined.

Lead author Dr. Katie Doores told the Guardian, “People produce a reasonable antibody response to the virus, but it subsides in a short period of time, and depending on how high your peak is, that determines how long the antibodies last.”

This means that antibody levels were highest and longest in patients with the most severe cases.

It would also mean that the protection against a vaccine may not last very long and that the vaccine may need to be reformulated every year.

But the chances persist that even if antibody levels drop, the body can fight the virus a second time with T cells.

The latest study also found that if the British R rate creeps up to just 1.1, the second peak could potentially be shifted to the following spring.

In this scenario, the scientists estimate that there could be 52,000 new daily cases in April at the height of the second wave.

It is unclear how permanent immunity to Covid-19 would affect daily cases in this scenario.

But if the UK can keep the R below 1, it won’t be able to reach new daily cases by November, no matter how long the immunity lasts, the researchers found.

The R represents the average number of people that infect each Covid-19 patient, and keeping it under the patient is essential to keep the epidemic from growing exponentially.

Currently, around 800 people are diagnosed with the virus daily in the UK and the R is estimated at 0.8-0.9 for all of Great Britain.

However, the cases are creeping up slowly and the R is thought to be higher in England than in the rest of the country, with the R already at 1.1 in southwest and northwest England.

The Office for National Statistics estimates that the actual number of people infected daily may be 4,200 in England alone.

The researchers wrote in the paper, “Our study reinforces the importance of better understanding the immunity of SARS-CoV-2 in recovered individuals of different ages and disease severity.

In scenarios where immunity declines and the Rt after lockdown is greater than one, the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic is never threatened with extinction.

Even in simulations where the reproduction number just exceeds one, if reduced by an average of one year for severe cases and three months for non-serious cases, immunity will lead to an equilibrium state of more than 40,000 daily new cases and 200 daily admissions in intensive care. ‘

It comes after an investigation last month that, according to research, the immunity to Covid-19 could be lost within a few months.

The findings suggest that, like the common cold and flu, the virus can infect people annually.

King’s College London scientists looked at the immune responses of more than 90 patients and health professionals at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust.

They found that antibody levels peaked three weeks after symptoms and then declined.

Lead author Dr. Katie Doores told the Guardian, “People produce a reasonable antibody response to the virus, but it subsides in a short period of time, and depending on how high your peak is, that determines how long the antibodies last.”

This means that antibody levels were highest and longest in patients with the most severe cases.

It would also mean that the protection against a vaccine may not last very long and that the vaccine may need to be reformulated every year.

But the chances persist that even if antibody levels drop, the body can fight the virus a second time with T cells.

It comes from another study that found that more than half of the hospitalized coronavirus patients who received heart scans worldwide had abnormalities.

About 55 percent of 1,261 patients from 69 countries had abnormal changes in the way their hearts beat, and about one in seven showed signs of severe dysfunction, the study funded by the British Heart Foundation found.

Heart problems had never been diagnosed in the majority of patients, leading scientists to conclude that Covid-19 can seriously affect the heart.

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