Coronavirus cases in Britain have been going on for three weeks – with an average of 835 Britons now being diagnosed every day. The rolling rate is 53 percent higher than the 546 on July 8, the lowest since pre-closing.
And heads of health registered 950 infections yesterday in the highest daily toll since June 26 (1,006).
But the number of Britons diagnosed with Covid-19 is still much lower than what was recorded during the darkest days of the April outbreak.
During the height of the crisis, about 5,000 positive tests were confirmed every day, but this will likely be a huge underestimate due to a lack of tests.
In April, fewer than 20,000 people were cleaned daily for the virus. Now more than 100,000 tests are processed daily.
It suggests that the virus is resurfacing in the UK, just like in other European countries. Spain has been forced to lift the blockades and infection rates in France have doubled in the past two weeks.
But top scientists have warned that the rise in cases across Britain is due to a spike in testing – and doesn’t reflect a true second wave.
Professor Carl Heneghan, an epidemiologist at Oxford University, said the data shows that the number of pillar two tests – conducted in the community – increased by 80 percent to about 80,000 during July.
And he argued that the number of spotted cases for every 100,000 of the tests is flat-lining, claiming that they actually decrease for pillar one, which is given to NHS and caregivers, as well as to hospital patients.
However, other estimates also show an increase in cases.
The US, which tracks the magnitude of the outbreak in England by performing thousands of Pap smears, last week doubled estimated cases from late June to mid-July.
The data, considered the most accurate of its kind, was among a series of numbers that prompted Boris Johnson to announce that he is “depressing the brake pedal” to facilitate coronavirus blockage.
But it has revealed today that there is evidence to show that infections have “ leveled off ” across the country. It is now estimated that 3,700 people become infected every day in England – a 12 percent drop from the 4,200 predictions from the week before.
Other surveillance systems have seen a similar trend. Experts behind King’s College London’s symptom tracking app say cases increased by 12 percent from July 23 to July 30, when they said 2,110 people became infected every day. But their most recent estimate, released yesterday, says it has fallen back to 1,600.
Test numbers don’t show the actual number of people infected because many people contract the virus but never test positive for it, either because they don’t realize they are sick, because they couldn’t get a test, or because their result was wrong.
Other measures that reflect whether an outbreak is really underway – hospitalizations and deaths – have hardly changed in the past month.
Government statistics show that less than 60 Britons die after being tested positive for Covid-19 every day. By comparison, during the darkest days of the April outbreak, more than 1,000 fatalities were recorded each day.
But the rate at which deaths have fallen has slowed.
The moving seven-day average has fallen by 13 percent since July 18 (68). But between early July and July 18, it dropped three times faster (42 percent).
Infected patients may take weeks to die from the coronavirus, which means that any flare-up may have seeped through in mid-July cases.
Hospital admissions – another indication of a pre-death outbreak – have hardly changed in the past week either.
On July 29, fewer than 150 people required NHS care for coronavirus, the most current figure. Data for days since then is not considered to be completely accurate as recordings may still seep in due to a recording delay.
In comparison, 183 patients were admitted the week before. And at the peak of the outbreak, more than 3,500 infected British people were hospitalized every day.