Assessment of how countries coped with COVID-19: Study shows the US and UK were one of the best responses to the worst, as rising death toll lagged business for 17 days
- At the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, China was in its own cluster and the other 207 countries in another
- More countries started joining China in the ‘worst cases’ cluster, with Italy first, followed by France, Germany, Iran, Spain, the UK and the US
- Sixteen clusters were formed with China disappearing from ‘worst death group’ in April and France, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US
- Investigators Discovered There Was a 17-Day Delay in the COVID-19 Death Rate Following Increase in Cases
A new model has grouped countries into ‘clusters’ depending on how they fared in the course of the coronavirus pandemic.
Researchers from Australia and China found that when the response to the virus first started in January, China was in a cluster of its own, separate from the rest of the world.
However, as business spread around the world, 16 groups and European countries began to move from the best to the worst. like Italy and the UK, besides the US.
Just three months later, in April, China, which managed to get the virus under control, moved out of the worst death cluster, with Italy, Spain, the UK and the US moving in.
At the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, China was in its own cluster and the other 207 countries in another. Pictured: Clinicians Care for a COVID-19 Patient at ICU at Sharp Memorial Hospital in San Diego, California, May 6
Sixteen clusters formed with China moving out of the ‘worst death group’ in April and moving into France, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US. Pictured: Coronavirus patient Ronald Temko is loaded into an ambulance by paramedics after being discharged from the UCSF Medical Center. at Mount Zion n San Francisco, California, May 20
For the study, published in the journal Chaos, the team analyzed data from Our World in Data, a project that focuses on global issues such as poverty, disease, and climate change.
Researchers looked at 208 cases of coronavirus cases and deaths in 208 countries between December 31, 2019 and April 30, 2020.
Then they performed cluster analysis, using a set of variables to group items (in this case countries) that are similar to each other in one group as opposed to those in other groups.
The results showed that clusters changed depending on the time of the year.
For example, in January 2020 there were only two clusters: China in one cluster and the other 207 countries in the other.
In terms of case, more countries started to jump into China’s cluster. First went Italy, followed by France, Germany, Iran, Spain, the UK and the US.
By mid-March, countries were able to group into 16 clusters, thanks to countries’ response to how well their affairs were under control.
In April, most countries were in the same death cluster. However, China started to step out of the groups due to ‘worst deaths’ and France, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US moved in.
“We … have noticed some kind of critical mass effect in the progression from death to death,” said study co-author Dr. Max Menzies, a postdoctoral math professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China.
‘The number of deaths in Spain on March 28 was more than double the number of cases that had happened just 16 days earlier.
“This is an amazing explosion of COVID-19. It also applies to the UD. The dramatic increase in the number of fatalities was achieved after the number of cases reached critical mass in early March. ‘
Clusters first started to shift for business between March 1 and March 2, with countries like Italy starting to report cases for the first time.
Another shift occurred around March 18 and March 19 for deaths, a 17-day difference from the cases.
This difference suggests that there is a 17-day delay for fatalities. which showed some deviations.
“Deviations can mean a disproportionately high or low number of deaths relative to the number of cases,” said coauthor Dr. Nick James, a professor at the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Sydney in Australia.