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Welcome to the first year of the 12-team college football playoff.
In anticipation of the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down the playoff-bound teams as the season approaches. The top five conference champions as ranked by the CFP selection committee will make the playoffs, and the rest of the field will consist of seven teams that will make the at-large round. Who will hoist the national championship trophy on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
Previous previews: issues 25-13, No. 12 Boise State, No. 11 Utah, No. 10 Florida State, No. 9 Missouri, No. 8 Michigan, No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 5 Alabama
Record 2023: 12-2, 8-1 Big 12
Last season in 100 words or less
As we mentioned a day ago in the Alabama section, the Longhorns’ convincing win in Tuscaloosa set the stage for their road to the College Football Playoff. Texas looked vulnerable in a comeback against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, but the regular season went off without a hitch.
Yes, Quinn Ewers missed playing time due to a shoulder injury suffered against Houston, but the team managed to get through the games without him and beat Kansas State in overtime. A week later, Texas only beat TCU by a field goal but took care of the final two games and then crushed Oklahoma State to capture the Big 12 title. The Longhorns then faced Washington before losing the Sugar Bowl to the Huskies.
Why can Texas make the playoffs?
The Longhorns lost a lot of key players in the NFL Draft, but there’s far fewer to replace than you’d expect and plenty of talent ready to step up.
Ewers is back after having the best season of his career. He threw for nearly 3,500 yards despite missing two games and is a preseason favorite to win the Heisman. The team showed that the offense is still working without Jonathon Brooks after he tore his ACL late in the season. C.J. Baxter stepped up in Brooks’ absence last season but is now out for the rest of the year due to a knee injury he suffered during fall camp.
The situation at running back became even more tenuous after Baxter’s injury. Rookie Christian Clark tore his Achilles tendon a week later. Jaydon Blue, the Longhorns’ No. 2 running back returning behind Baxter, is now in position to be the team’s No. 1 running back with only two other scholarship backs behind him.
At least the running backs will have a very good offensive line to run behind. Four starters are back up front and Texas has averaged at least five yards per carry in Steve Sarkisian’s three seasons as coach.
Last season’s top five receivers are gone, but Sarkisian and his staff dipped into the transfer portal to bolster that group. Former Alabama receiver Isaiah Bond arrives after catching Jalen Milroe’s miracle pass against Auburn. Former Oregon State wide receiver Silas Bolden could also start after being a weapon in the slot for the Beavers. Former Houston wide receiver Matthew Golden caught six touchdowns last season.
The defense will be without defensive line stars Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat, but otherwise returns eight starters and also added reinforcements through the transfer portal.
Linebacker Anthony Hill was the team’s second-leading tackler as a freshman and should be even better as a sophomore. Jahdae Barron played all over the field last season and had six pass deflections and 4.5 tackles for loss.
Ethan Burke led the team with 5.5 sacks and returns on the veteran defensive line. What the team lost in star power up the middle can be made up for with increased pressure on the quarterback. Former UTSA defensive back Trey Moore arrives after recording 14 sacks with the Roadrunners in 2023. Former San Jose State CB Jay’Vion Cole should also boost the secondary. Cole had three interceptions in his first season at the top level of college football in 2023.
Key player
Niblack won’t be the star of Texas’ offense in 2024. But his ability to quickly become an all-around contributor could determine how high the offense’s ceiling is.
Wide receivers AD Mitchell and Xavier Worthy were the stars of the Texas passing attack last season. But the role TE Ja’Tavion Sanders played over the past two seasons can’t be overlooked. Sanders had 99 receptions for 1,295 yards and seven scores in 2022 and 2023. Niblack takes Sanders’ place after a 20-catch season at Alabama that led to 327 yards and four touchdowns. Asking Niblack to produce at Sanders’ level may be a bit much. But he should get opportunities right away, especially as Texas debuts its new wide receivers.
The biggest game
The Longhorns had a much easier schedule than the other SEC newcomer. While Oklahoma plays Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama and LSU, the toughest conference game for Texas is against Georgia and the second toughest is a visit to Texas A&M in the final week of the season.
The game against Georgia will be a raucous atmosphere and a big test for the Longhorns. It will also be played a week after the annual rivalry game against the Sooners. With a trip to Michigan in Week 2, a tie against the Sooners and the Bulldogs will greatly help Texas’ chances of making the playoffs in back-to-back seasons.