SMU or Alabama?
That’s the College Football Playoff Committee’s big dilemma heading into Sunday’s final standings. The Mustangs battled back against Clemson to tie the game with less than 30 seconds remaining before losing 34-31 to the Tigers on a 56-yard field goal with no time left.
The loss drops SMU to 11-2 and the Mustangs will surely fall from the No. 8 spot in the standings. But will they be out of the playoff?
Alabama edged out Miami for the final spot in the provisional playoff field on Tuesday despite having a 9-3 record to Miami’s 10-2 record. The Hurricanes lost two of their last three games and ended the regular season with a loss at Syracuse.
It’s easy to see how Alabama could overcome a two-loss SMU in the same conference given what happened less than a week ago. But we’re not sure the committee wants to open that can of worms. Committee Chairman Warde Manuel left open the possibility of SMU falling below Alabama on Tuesday night, but he also made it clear that was far from a guarantee.
“Whether they quit if they lose, I’m not sure,” Manuel said. “What we will do is evaluate their performance, again, watching the game, taking into great consideration the teams that are playing. There are 18 teams playing this weekend and we will be watching all of them and evaluating the results of those games and seeing how they move, if they move at all. As I mentioned in the interview on ESPN, two years ago, TCU lost and held on to the #3 spot in that particular year, so those things can happen. People can lose and maybe stay where they are. They can move like we have done in other years and go down a lot or they can go down just a little. It just depends on the result of the game.”
We don’t think Clemson’s win was convincing enough to knock SMU out of the playoff entirely. Here’s our final prediction for what the playoff field will look like when it’s announced Sunday at noon ET on ESPN.
Breaks in the first round
1. Oregon (13-0, Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia (11-2, SEC champion)
3. Boise State (12-1, Mountain West champion)
4. Arizona State (11-2, Big 12 champion)
These four teams seem pretty simple. Boise State entered the weekend five spots ahead of Arizona State and beat UNLV by 14 in the MWC title game. Arizona State dominated Iowa State in the Big 12 title game and was two spots ahead of Clemson in Tuesday’s standings. Clemson didn’t do enough to earn a first-round bye and Boise State should stay ahead of Arizona State.
First round matchups
No. 12 SMU (11-2, overall) at No. 5 Texas (11-2, overall)
No. 11 Clemson (10-3, ACC champion) at No. 6 Penn State (11-2, overall)
No. 10 Indiana (11-1, overall) at No. 7 Notre Dame (11-1, overall)
No. 9 Tennessee (10-2, overall) at No. 8 Ohio State (10-2, overall)
This is where things get really interesting. We have SMU with the last playoff spot over Alabama and the Mustangs one spot below Clemson due to Saturday night’s head-to-head loss. It would be strange for the committee to have both Clemson and SMU in the field and have the Mustangs ahead of the Tigers.
However, we are not sure if the head-to-head results will apply in other first round matches. Texas and Penn State are locks to host first-round games after their losses in the conference title game on Saturday. And we think the committee will keep them ahead of Notre Dame because both losses were by one score. Texas was ranked No. 2 in Tuesday’s rankings, ahead of No. 3 Penn State and No. 4 Notre Dame.
With the top four conference champions getting byes, that would leave those three teams 5-7 in the playoffs and leave Ohio State at No. 8. Yes, the Buckeyes beat Penn State in the regular season. But can the committee place Penn State below Ohio State without doing the same to Texas?
Placing Notre Dame at No. 7 behind Texas and Penn State also allows the committee to avoid a rematch or a game between teams from the same conference in a first-round game. Indiana appears locked in at No. 10 and could face the Fighting Irish instead of Penn State or return to Ohio State.