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It’s never too early to start thinking about the college football playoff field.
With this season’s playoffs expanding to 12 teams, we will lay out the projected playoff field each week as the season progresses. Yes, the official playoff rankings won’t be released until November 5, but that won’t stop us from making our own guesses.
Without the CFP rankings as a guide, we will rely primarily on the AP Top 25 as our barometer to project the field. CFP rankings and the AP poll tend to have far more similarities than differences at the end of the season. Here’s what the provisional playoff field looks like as the calendar turns to October.
Breaks in the first round
1. Alabama (4-0, projected SEC champion)
The Crimson Tide jumped to first place in the AP Poll on Sunday after their dominant first half turned into a runaway against Georgia. Alabama seemed unstoppable for the first 30 minutes and, well, stalled in the second half until 17-year-old freshman wide receiver Ryan Williams made two big plays. Alabama travels to a struggling Vanderbilt team on Saturday afternoon. Don’t be surprised if Vanderbilt sticks around for a while.
2. Ohio State (4-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes have now been bumped into the AP Top 25 by two different SEC teams despite a season that included four 30-point wins. Ohio State is simply taking care of business so far this season and that showed in a 38-7 win at Michigan State. Freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith continues to show why he’s so good and three different quarterbacks had a chance to throw passes against the Spartans. Saturday’s matchup against Iowa’s defense will be the biggest test the OSU offense has faced yet.
3. Miami (5-0, projected ACC champion)
The Hurricanes remain in the No. 3 spot despite a dramatic 38-34 win over Virginia Tech on Friday night. Miami did everything it could to lose the game and almost lost it, as a Hail Mary attempt to win the game by the Hokies was ultimately ruled incomplete. Cam Ward had his first two-interception game of the season against Tech, although he also totaled five touchdowns. The Hurricanes can now experience life in the remade ACC as their Week 6 game is at Cal and kicks off at 10:30 p.m. ET.
4. Iowa State (4-0, projected Big 12 champion)
Welcome to the show, Cyclones. Iowa State is the top-ranked team in the Big 12 after Utah lost at home to Arizona on Saturday night. The Cyclone defense has been phenomenal this season. ISU has allowed just 29 points in its four games and 19 of them were scored by Iowa in Week 2. The Big 12 may be the most open conference in the country, but Iowa State also has a chance to maintain this undefeated streak. . The Cyclones don’t play a ranked team until the second-to-last week of the season, and a road game at Kansas in early November doesn’t seem as tough as it did at the beginning of the season.
First round games
No. 12. Boise State (3-1, projected MWC champion) at No. 5 Texas (5-0, overall)
The Broncos continue to look like the best Group of Five team in the country after rolling through and around Washington State on Saturday night. Utah State visits in week 6 before a trip to Hawaii. The Broncos should be 5-1 before playing at UNLV in late October. The Longhorns drop to an at-large spot here after a routine win over Mississippi State and victory over Alabama. Texas now has a week off for Quinn Ewers to recover before the annual rivalry game against Oklahoma.
No. 11 Michigan (4-1, overall) at No. 6 Tennessee (4-0, overall)
The Wolverines came close with their 27-24 victory over Minnesota that was helped by a controversial offsides call on a Gophers onside kick late in the game. Michigan had seemingly finished the game before the Gophers scored 21 points in the fourth quarter. The Wolverines visit Washington in Week 6 in a rematch of the national title game that doesn’t have much juice given both teams’ turnovers. Tennessee had a bye in Week 5 and heads to Arkansas in a game that might be tougher than it looks.
No. 10 Missouri (4-0, overall) at No. 7 Georgia (3-1, overall)
The Tigers also had a bye in Week 5 and have their biggest test of the season in Week 6 with a trip to No. 25 Texas A&M. Mizzou’s last two games were one-possession wins over Boston College and Vanderbilt, respectively. A win over the Aggies will go a long way toward the Tigers’ playoff hopes. Georgia only dropped to No. 5 in the AP Poll after the loss and will have every chance to get back to No. 1 the rest of the season. The Bulldogs could take out their frustrations against a turnover-prone Auburn team in Week 6.
No. 9 Penn State (4-0, overall) at No. 8 Oregon (4-0, overall)
Penn State’s win over Illinois wasn’t pretty, but it got the job done. The Nittany Lions shut out the Illini in the second half as running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen ended the game. Thanks to seven sacks by Illinois QB Luke Altmyer, the Illini had just 34 rushing yards on 32 carries. Oregon easily beat UCLA on Saturday night in a Pac-12 matchup that counted as a Big Ten conference matchup. The Ducks host Michigan State on Friday night.
