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It’s never too early to start thinking about the College Football Playoff field.
Since this season’s playoffs will be expanded to 12 teams, we’ll be detailing the projected playoff field each week as the season progresses. Yes, the official playoff standings won’t be released until November 5, but that won’t stop us from making our own educated guesses.
Without the CFP rankings as a guide, we’ll rely primarily on the AP Top 25 as our barometer for projecting the field. The CFP rankings and the AP poll typically have far more similarities than differences at the end of the season. Here’s what the provisional playoff field looks like after Week 4.
First round passes
1. Texas Longhorns (4-0, projected SEC champion)
Texas’ first game with Arch Manning at quarterback went about as expected. Manning wasn’t stellar, but the Longhorns dominated Louisiana-Monroe 51-3 as 44.5-point favorites. Quinn Ewers could be sidelined again this week with an abdominal injury when Texas opens SEC play. That shouldn’t be a big deal. Mississippi State figures to be the worst team in the conference by a significant margin and just lost starting quarterback Blake Shapen to a season-ending injury. Texas shouldn’t have any issues against the Bulldogs before a bye week in Week 6.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0, projected Big Ten champion)
Ohio State’s rushing offense is as good as advertised so far this season. The Buckeyes rushed for 380 yards and five touchdowns on just 31 attempts in a 49-14 win over Marshall. Quinshon Judkins had 14 carries for 173 yards and two scores (one was an 86-yard touchdown) and TreVeyon Henderson had six carries for 76 yards and two scores. The 35-point margin of victory was the smallest for Ohio State so far this season. The Buckeyes open Big Ten play Saturday night at Michigan State.
3. Miami Hurricanes (4-0, projected ACC champion)
Miami’s offense figures to be the best it’s been through the first four weeks of the season. Quarterback Cam Ward continued his hot start to the season with 404 passing yards and three touchdowns in a 50-15 win over South Florida. Running back Damien Martinez averaged just 2.8 carries but scored three touchdowns. Miami has a short week this week before a home game against Virginia Tech on Friday night. Tech already has losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers this season. Miami needs to get a head start early.
4. Utah Utes (4-0, projected Big 12 champion)
Without Cameron Rising, there was no problem for the Utes in a 22-19 win over Oklahoma State that wasn’t as close as the score indicated. Utah led 22-3 in the fourth quarter before Oklahoma State scored two late touchdowns to force Utah into a first down to run out the clock. Freshman quarterback Isaac Wilson wasn’t as good against the Cowboys as he was against Utah State, but Utah relied on a ground game that featured Micah Bernard. He had 25 carries for 182 yards. Big 12 play doesn’t get much easier in Week 5 with Arizona visiting.
First round games
No. 12 Boise State (2-1, projected MWC champion) vs. No. 5 Georgia (3-0, overall)
The Broncos move into the playoff projection after Northern Illinois’ overtime loss at home to Buffalo. The Broncos didn’t play in Week 3 and had an easy win in Week 4 over a Portland State team that was healthy enough to play after a whooping cough outbreak. Boise State was our preseason favorite to represent the Group of Five in the playoffs, and we’re not wavering on that confidence through the first four weeks. Georgia didn’t play in Week 4 before its big game against Alabama in Week 5 and the Bulldogs remain at the No. 5 spot.
No. 11 Missouri (4-0, overall) vs. No. 6 Alabama (3-0, overall)
This game will be played in the regular season in October. The Tigers visit the Crimson Tide on Oct. 26. A lot can happen between now and then, and we’re pretty sure Alabama won’t be No. 6 in our rankings next week. The Tide will be No. 5 (or higher) with a win over Georgia, or they could drop a few spots. Like Georgia, Alabama didn’t play in Week 4. Missouri dropped two spots in playoff projections after beating Vanderbilt 30-27 in double overtime. The Tigers don’t play in Week 5 before a trip to Texas A&M.
Penn State, No. 10 (3-0, overall) vs. Tennessee, No. 7 (4-0, overall)
Penn State and Tennessee can compare their blowout wins over Kent State. The Vols destroyed Kent State 71-0 in Week 3 and Penn State beat the Golden Flashes 56-0 in Week 4. Kent State is one of the worst teams at the highest level of college football, so we’re pretty sure the committee isn’t going to use them as a real point of comparison between the two teams. Tennessee’s defense was the center of attention in Week 4 as Oklahoma had a rough welcome to life in the SEC. The Vols have a bye in Week 5 before heading to Arkansas.
No. 9 Oregon (3-0, overall) vs. No. 8 Ole Miss (4-0, overall)
The Ducks were off in Week 4 before a trip to UCLA on Saturday. It will be exceptionally strange to see two old Pac-12 teams face each other in a Big Ten game. The Rebels fell one spot in the AP Top 25 despite a 52-13 win over Georgia Southern because of Tennessee’s impressive victory. QB Jaxson Dart has 15 total TDs through the first four games of the season and is completing nearly 80% of his passes.
