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It’s never too early to start thinking about the College Football Playoff field.
Since this season’s playoffs will be expanded to 12 teams, we’ll be detailing the projected playoff field each week as the season progresses. Yes, the official playoff standings won’t be released until November 5, but that won’t stop us from making our own educated guesses.
Without the CFP rankings as a guide, we’ll rely primarily on the AP Top 25 as our barometer for projecting the field. The CFP rankings and the AP poll typically have far more similarities than differences at the end of the season. Here’s what the provisional playoff field looks like after Week 3.
First round passes
1. Texas Longhorns (3-0, projected SEC champion)
The Longhorns leapfrogged Georgia atop the AP poll following a big win over UTSA. And Arch Manning could be the team’s starter in Week 4, as Quinn Ewers is questionable to play due to an abdominal injury he suffered against the Roadrunners. Manning was fantastic in his relief appearance following Ewers’ injury, as he ran for one touchdown and threw for four others. If he starts Saturday against Louisiana-Monroe, we’ll get a matchup of Louisiana’s top high school quarterbacks: Manning and ULM quarterback General Booty.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes had a bye week early in the season with no games in Week 3. Ohio State’s second bye week of the season is Oct. 19, meaning the Buckeyes could play seven straight games to finish the season if they make the Big Ten title game. Marshall hits Columbus in Week 4 while Ohio State closes out nonconference play before a visit to Michigan State in Week 5.
3. Miami Hurricanes (3-0, projected ACC champion)
The Hurricanes have increased their point production in each week so far. After scoring 41 points against Florida, Miami scored 56 against Florida A&M and then 62 against Ball State. We have our doubts that trend will continue on the road against a combative South Florida team in Week 4. The Bulls held their own against a sloppy Alabama team for more than three quarters in Week 2 before the Crimson Tide broke the game open.
4. Utah Utes (3-0, projected Big 12 champion)
The Utes took care of business in Week 3 without Cameron Rising. Freshman quarterback Isaac Wilson, brother of former BYU quarterback Zach Wilson, completed 20 of 33 passes for 239 yards and threw three touchdowns along with an interception in Utah’s 38-21 win at Utah State. Rising could be back in Week 4 after missing the game against the Aggies. And that’s a big deal. The Utes have their first Big 12 game on the road at No. 14 Oklahoma State.
First round games
No. 12 Northern Illinois (2-0, projected MAC champion) vs. No. 5 Georgia (3-0, overall)
The Huskies were also off the grid in Week 3 as they basked in the glow of their win over Notre Dame. NIU opens MAC play at home in Week 4 against a Buffalo team that was blown out at Missouri in Week 2. Georgia is the only new team in this category, as it drops four spots as the best overall team. The Bulldogs were less than convincing in a 13-12 win at Kentucky in Week 3. What happens if Kentucky coach Mark Stoops doesn’t play super conservatively and punts on fourth-and-13 from his own 48-yard line with under three minutes left? Georgia probably wins anyway, but Kentucky has a better chance.
No. 11 Oregon (3-0, overall) vs. No. 6 Alabama (3-0, overall)
The Ducks played their best game of the season by far in a 49-14 rout of Oregon State. It was extremely odd to see that game happen in September and not the weekend after Thanksgiving. Dillon Gabriel threw for two touchdowns and ran for another as Oregon racked up 546 yards. The Ducks don’t play in Week 4. Alabama, meanwhile, was also very impressive in a blowout win at Wisconsin. Quarterback Jalen Milroe had five total touchdowns.
#10 Penn State (2-0, overall) vs. #7 Ole Miss (3-0, overall)
The Nittany Lions are on the same schedule as the Buckeyes with a bye week in Week 3 and another in Week 8 of this 14-week season. Ole Miss easily disposed of Wake Forest and the Rebels took a 20-3 lead in the first quarter en route to a 40-6 victory. The Rebels have allowed just nine points all season. This might be Lane Kiffin’s most complete team in history.
No. 9 Missouri (3-0, overall) vs. No. 8 Tennessee (3-0, overall)
This matchup changes course, as the Vols edged out the Tigers in the AP poll. It was hard to disagree with that call. Missouri earned a win over a ranked opponent in a 27-21 victory over formerly 24th-ranked Boston College, but the Tigers managed to make the deficit too close for comfort in the second half. The Volunteers, meanwhile, steamrolled Kent State in a 71-0 win. Tennessee scored 37 points in the first quarter, as its final score of the period came after a surprise onside kick that made it 30-0. Even if you have no problem with teams trying to run up the score, you have to think that’s a little harsh.
