A CNN analyst believes Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is likely to ‘sweep’ the battleground states.
CNN polling guru Harry Enten revealed Thursday that his electoral model suggests the presidential race won’t be as close as some think.
Even though many polls show the race in battleground states – and across the country – to be virtually tied, the analyst suggested the race could end in a landslide.
When asked by host John Berman about the “historically close” race, Enten suggested one candidate could come out on top.
The pollster admitted that it is “more likely than not” that the presidential race will result in an “electoral college explosion.”
CNN’s Harry Enten said Thursday that he expects an electoral “explosion” after previously believing the race would be historically close.
‘We have less than two weeks left until these elections and we have been telling you how close they are. Historically close, closer than ever,” Berman began before asking, “What if it’s not?”
Enten then launched into a long explanation.
There is a “60 percent chance that the winner of this election will get at least 300 electoral votes, versus only a 40 percent chance that the winner will end up getting less than 300 electoral votes.”
“So despite everything we’ve talked about this election being historically close, the winner is still likely to have a relative victory in the electoral college,” he explained.
Enten also admitted to predicting several times before that the race will be very close, but new results from his model show that a candidate is now likely to get 300 electoral college votes.
The threshold to win the presidency is 270 electoral college votes.
Battleground states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Michigan could go in one direction, Enten said.
Your browser does not support iframes.
“If you look at the seven key swing states, the seven closest states, in all of them the margin right now is less than two points,” the CNN analyst continued.
But keep in mind that polls are not perfect, dear friends. Averaged since 1972 across key swing states, the average error in key swing states is 3.4 points.
The analyst further described situations in which candidates who are underestimated in a swing state are underestimated in most swing states.
He later pointed to Obama’s 2012 victory and Trump’s 2016 victory as evidence that underestimations in one state tend to reveal themselves in others as well.
‘So this time, don’t be surprised if the swing state polls, when they underestimate one candidate, underestimate everyone in the states. And that would lead to a relative explosion in the Electoral College, in which one of the candidates would win at least 300 electoral votes,” Enten continued.
