Climate change causes heat waves more often and with greater intensity


The heat wave was caused by the build-up of high pressure across Europe in recent days, which led to the northward movement of warm air from Europe across the UK.


"At this time of the year, southerly winds will always lead to above-average temperatures," said meteorologist University Inn Reading.

& # 39; Air from continental Europe, the Mediterranean and even North Africa is being transported to the UK. & # 39;

& # 39; The eastern passage of weather fronts and low pressure from the North Atlantic are currently being blocked by the high pressure across Europe, & # 39; added climate scientist Len Shaffrey of the University of Reading.


The recent warm weather of the US was caused by a high-pressure dome that built up over much of the country and held the summer heat.

This has wider effects.

& # 39; Heat wave conditions in the US Midwest and the east coast have strengthened the jet stream & # 39 ;, said environmental scientist Kate Sambrook of the University of Leeds.


& # 39; The resulting thunderstorms on the continent have helped meander the jetstream and move it to the north of the UK. & # 39;

& # 39; As a result of this shift, warm air has been sucked up from Europe, causing the high temperatures we are experiencing this week. & # 39;

The warm weather of the US was caused by a high-pressure dome that accumulated over much of the country and held the summer heat

The warm weather of the US was caused by a high-pressure dome that accumulated over much of the country and held the summer heat


& # 39; Although there is some uncertainty in the forecast, it seems that it will become cooler on Friday as high pressure across Europe slowly moves east, & # 39; said Dr. Shaffrey.

"This allows weather fronts to move across the UK, resulting in cooler air and possibly some rain," Professor Shaffrey added:

How hot will it be?

Meteorologists predict high temperatures of up to 38 ° C (100 ° F) on Thursday.


Although different predictions anticipate slightly different details, & # 39; the broad message of all predictions is the same & # 39 ;, said Dr. Inness.

& # 39; It will be hot, with high temperatures during the night, and there is a risk of some thunderstorms above the UK. & # 39;

These will continue until Wednesday.

& # 39; If circumstances continue, it is likely that we can experience the hottest July ever & # 39 ;, said Dr. Sambrook.

& # 39; The outcome is uncertain, however, as circumstances are expected to change early next week. & # 39;


Climate scientist Karsten Haustein of the University of Oxford added that & # 39; there is a 40-50 percent chance that this is the hottest July ever & # 39 ;.

The final estimate depends on which observational data set is used, he noted.

Although he agreed that next week's weather will place this July in the record books, Dr. noted. Inness that 2019 brought us the warmest June that has been known since the year 1880.

& # 39; In fact, 9 of the 10 hottest Junes have been in the world record since 2000 & # 39 ;, he said.

In Europe, he noted, this June was also the hottest ever, with almost a whole degree Celsius above the previous number one in 2003.


& # 39; Weather records are normally not broken by such large margins – a few tenths of a degree is more likely. & # 39;

Current conditions may prove record-breaking, but they are also part of a recent trend towards warmer British summers.

& # 39; 2018 was the joint most used (year) record with the highest temperature measured around 35 ° C, comparable to the temperatures expected this week & # 39 ;, said University of Leeds climatologist Declan Finney.

The chance to experience such hot summers has risen from less than 10 percent chance in the 1980s to 25 per chance today, he added.


& # 39; The fact that so many recent years have had very high summer temperatures, both globally and throughout Europe, is very much in line with what we expect from man-made global warming & # 39 ;, said Dr. Inness.


& # 39; Changes in the intensity and probability of extreme weather is how climate change manifests itself & # 39 ;, said environmental scientist Friederike Otto of the University of Oxford.

& # 39; That does not mean that every extreme event is more intense because of that, but many are. For example, every heat wave that occurs today in Europe is becoming more likely and more intense due to man-made climate change. & # 39;

However, local factors also play a role, with each extreme weather event influenced by location, season, intensity and duration.

The current heatwave is not the only notable indicator of climate change, experts note, while ongoing droughts – as experienced in many parts of Germany – are also in line with scientific predictions.

Research into the European heat wave of 2003 suggested at the time that human activity had that the risk of such hot summers more than doubled – and that annual heat waves as we now experience them around the middle of the century can become commonplace.

"An estimated 35,000 people died as a result of the European heat wave in 2003, so this is not a trivial issue," said Dr. Inness.

& # 39; With further climate change there could be a 50% chance of having hot summers in the future & # 39 ;, Dr. Finney in.

& # 39; That is the same as saying that a normal summer in the future will be just as hot as our hottest summers so far, & # 39; he added.

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