For most of the first 126 games of the 2024-25 Champions League, no one knew anything. The goals came and the giants failed, but what did it all mean? The new format of the competition, with a “league phase” replacing the groups, made conclusions murky.
Until now.
On Wednesday, the penultimate day of the league phase, Manchester City blew a 2-0 lead against Paris Saint-Germain and slipped into the bottom 12 of the Champions League standings.
PSG’s comeback, to win 4-2, propelled the Parisians to 22nd place (narrowly inside the top 24, the knockout round places) and left City in 25th place, two points below 24th.
INSTANT RESPONSE FROM PSG WITH TWO GOALS IN FOUR MINUTES TO LEVEL IT
56′ Ousmane Dembélé
60′ Bradley Barcola pic.twitter.com/ginuGdh199— Great goal from CBS Sports (@CBSSportsGolazo) January 22, 2025
Surprisingly, after multiple collapses and only two wins in seven attempts, City are still alive. A home win against Club Brugge on the final matchday next Wednesday would almost certainly be enough to secure a place in the play-in round.
But, ultimately, winning is essential. The new format, which gives 24 of 36 teams a place in the knockout round, has been lenient on City, England’s four-time reigning champions and pre-season Champions League favourites. City, however, have been so unfathomably bad that their margin for error is now zero.
And finally, in other aspects of the Champions League, there is some clarity.
Of the 24 qualifying places, 18 have been claimed.
The final six will be won or awarded next week.
Champions League 2024-25 with one day left
In the absence of a chaotic round of games, here’s how the Champions League looks like:
Bye-bye to the round of 16 (2): Liverpool (21), Barcelona (18)
Elimination rounds assured, in fight for rest (16): Arsenal (16), Inter Milan (16), Atlético de Madrid (15), AC Milan (15), Atalanta (14), Bayer Leverkusen (13), Aston Villa (13), Monaco (13), Lille (13 ), Brest (13), Feyenoord (13), Borussia Dortmund (12), Bayern Munich (12), Real Madrid (12), Juventus (12), Celtic (12)
In the fight for the knockout rounds: PSV (11), Club Brugge (11), Benfica (10), PSG (10), Sporting Clube de Portugal (10), Stuttgart (10), Manchester City (8), Dinamo Zagreb (8), Shakhtar Donetsk (7 )
Removed: Bologna (5), Sparta Prague (4), RB Leipzig (3), Girona (3), Red Star (Red Star Belgrade) (3), Sturm Graz (3), RB Salzburg (3), BSC Young Boys ( 1 ), Slovan Bratislava (0)
Within that set of breaks, in theory, there are incentives associated with higher results. As the probable first two, for example, Liverpool and Barcelona would not meet until the final, because the knockout rounds will be in parentheses and they will qualify. They also wouldn’t face the third and fourth place teams until the semifinals. They will face an opponent ranked 15th to 18th in the round of 16, and another ranked no better than seventh in the quarterfinals.
All of these, on paper, are advantages. But the league stage has been so complicated that the real value of the top finishers is unclear. Three of the four favorites before the competition, Real Madrid, Man City and Bayern Munich, now sit in 15th, 16th and 25th place with one game remaining.
And small margins still separate most of the pack. Eighth place Bayer Leverkusen has 13 points; so is Brest, which is in 13th place; and 18th-place Celtic have 12. Goal differential, and perhaps other tiebreakers, will determine who finishes exactly where.
Which means, of course, that the final day (next Wednesday, when all 36 teams play simultaneously) will be crazy. The drama will be unprecedented. The two hour roller coaster will be crazy.
But the scenarios and permutations remain too confusing to delineate. The only clear thing is that City must win.