A generation ago, in a different sport, Reggie Jackson established himself as Mr. October.
Josh Allen is doing everything he can to claim Mr. December. He is once again dominating in the fantasy playoffs and taking a draft into the history books.
It’s been impossible to overlook Allen’s absurd play lately. He had the best fantasy quarterback play of all time in Week 14 against the Rams (51.88 points), then backed it up with a 41.28 explosion in Detroit last Sunday. No quarterback has scored more fantasy points in a two-game sample, and It’s the fifth best fantasy two-pack (regardless of position) of all time.
Now Allen aims to become the greatest December fantasy star of all time. The top of the standings is easily within reach, and I doubt the Patriots and Jets will stop him in the next two weeks.
It’s fun to get lost in Stathead, the search engine for the indispensable Pro-Football Reference. I made a query about the best cumulative fantasy standard score (i.e., without receiving points) during a month of Decemberand the results were interesting.
Allen’s run in 2024 is already 11th all-time despite being a game or two behind those at the top. Allen has also appeared on this list twice before, back in 2018 (13th all time) and 2020 (15th all time). No wonder they call this guy The winter soldier. Something about Allen’s game takes off in the latter part of the season.
The simplest explanation comes from Allen’s rapid movements. His jump in rushing yards per game each month over his careerlike this: 30.3 yards in September, 32.1 in October, 41.4 in November, 45.3 in December. He also has 22 rushing touchdowns in December games, compared to 40 combined in the other three months.
When the snow falls, Allen goes to town.
Allen is having this monster streak and MVP season despite ordinary help in the receivers room. Mack Hollins, of all people, leads this team in touchdown receptions, a modest five. Khalil Shakir has been a fantasy hit, WR26 in mid-point PPR, but Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Dalton Kincaid and midseason addition Amari Cooper (16-231-1 in 27 targets since joining the team) They are disappointments.
Some of the deficiencies are related to injuries, although we must also mention the width of the target tree. It doesn’t matter. Allen has shown that he can carry this unit on his shoulders.
Most of the December stars Allen is pursuing in that ranking are running backs. Marshall Faulk (first, fourth) placed twice in the Greatest Show on Turf Days. Larry Johnson (10th) took over the Kansas City backfield in mid-2005 (Priest Holmes was injured) and single-handedly. took most of his coaches to the fantasy finalsif not a championship. Clinton Portis (fifth, 2002) was a gas when he was healthy. LaDainian Tomlinson (6th, 2003), Steven Jackson (2nd, 2006), Adrian Peterson (7th, 2012), Todd Gurley (9th, 2017); They all used to rule the fantasy world.
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The two quarterbacks ahead of Allen used different maps to get there. Peyton Manning’s best passing year was the ridiculous 2013 campaign, when he scored a record 55 touchdown passes in his second season in Denver. The Seahawks were careful with using Russell Wilson as a rookie, but in his 2012 run he won fantasy titles with his legs (including 92 rushing yards and three touchdowns in Week 15). It’s been fun to watch Wilson resurrect his career in Pittsburgh, but he’s nowhere near the electric player he was as a 20-year-old in Seattle.
December Roster Not Catcher Friendlyfantasy football variance position. Quarterback and running back scoring are much more stable week to week, which works well in this type of leaderboard. If you work with standard scoring, we don’t see a cumulative receiver in December until Drew Bennett (61st, 2004) and Odell Beckham Jr. (65th, 2014). If we switch to full PPR scoring, OBJ jumps to seventh and Bennett is at No. 14. Marvin Harrison Sr., Eric Decker and Josh Gordon are all in the top 20.
There’s been a lot of talk about how veteran running backs have defined this fantasy season, but don’t miss what marquee quarterbacks are bringing to the table. Lamar Jackson is currently third on Yahoo’s MVP list – the frequency with which a player appears among the Yahoo Public League’s top 500 teams. Allen is ranked sixth, Joe Burrow is ranked 16th and Jalen Hurts is ranked 20th. You won’t find a valuable quarterback until Baker Mayfield is ranked 36th.
When I work on the team assembly in the summer months, I don’t spend a lot of time looking ahead to December or working on the schedule, that kind of thing. The NFL is a snow globe league and too many variables for December simply cannot be known months in advance. And for several years I have been focused on my first selections. In many seasons, that worked well as a strategy.
For many reasons, it has been negative EV (expected value) in 2024.
But I’m open-minded to a change in strategy in future seasons. I always want a strong running back room (all Fantasy coaches do, even if they draft using something like Zero RB) and I know their weekly scoring comes with a high floor. But maybe I need to be more open-minded to what a star quarterback can do in the fantasy playoffs. After all, maybe there’s a lesson in all this Allen stuff.
Or maybe it’s simpler than that. Maybe I just need to make sure I have more Josh Allen stock on my fantasy teams next year. Just make the playoffs, Josh Allen will take it from there.
There are two more weeks until December 2024. Pour yourself some eggnog and call Buffalo on your home screen. We are all witnesses.