California, a former Democratic stronghold, saw a notable shift to the right in Tuesday’s elections, and even the state’s most Democratic county, San Francisco County, was far from immune to the trend.
The city recorded a 7-point swing in favor of Donald Trump compared to the 2020 election, possibly as part of a broader political realignment within the state.
The shift toward the GOP was only the second time since 1984 that California voters offered stronger support for a Republican presidential candidate than in the previous cycle.
And it appears that voters in the Asian and less college-educated parts of the city were the two main key demographic groups that helped move the city a few points to the right.
California, a former Democratic stronghold, saw a notable shift to the right in the election, and even the state’s bluest county, San Francisco, was far from immune to the trend.
And it appears that voters in the Asian and less college-educated parts of San Francisco were the two main key demographic groups that helped move the city a few points to the right.
Across the state, major counties, including San Diego, Los Angeles and Fresno, saw significant swings toward Trump.
Fresno, a former Democratic stronghold, turned to Trump for the first time in 20 years.
While San Francisco managed to maintain a Democratic majority, a similar pattern emerged.
Support for Trump in San Francisco County increased from 12.7% in 2020 to 15.3% in this year’s election.
The rightward trend caused support for Kamala Harris to fall from 85.3% to 80.8%.
In many parts of the country, Latino voters were behind the push toward Trump, while in San Francisco the shift was largely driven by Asian voters, the report reports. San Francisco Chronicle.
The swing toward Trump is even deeper outside San Francisco, particularly in suburban and rural areas of the state.
The shift toward the GOP is only the second time since 1984 that California voters have offered stronger support for a Republican presidential candidate than in the previous cycle.
Trump supporters gather at a Republican watch party for South San Francisco in San Carlos, California.
Precinct-level data details how neighborhoods with high numbers of Asian residents, particularly in the southern and western parts of the city, along with Chinatown, leaned the most Republican.
In the past, those areas have been the last progressive in San Francisco and also receptive to conservative messages.
In fact, this year’s results show a more pronounced shift to the right.
A detailed analysis at the electoral district level shows that that ethnicity was the strongest predictor of changes in voting.
Precincts with higher percentages of Asian voters saw the biggest gains for Trump, while predominantly white areas showed little movement.
Income, poverty rates and the share of foreign-born residents were also less important factors in determining the changes.
Less educated areas were also more likely to lean toward Trump.
Precincts with higher percentages of Asian voters saw the biggest gains for Trump, while predominantly white areas showed little movement. In the photo, voters cast their ballots at a polling location inside a residential garage.
The swing toward Trump is even deeper outside San Francisco, particularly in suburban and rural areas of the state.
The analysis reveals that less educated neighborhoods, particularly those with fewer residents with college degrees, were more likely to lean Republican.
It also explains why Trump performed well in areas like Visitacion Valley and Bayview-Hunters Point, both predominantly Asian, but with lower educational levels.
Similar changes were reported in Los Angeles and Queens, New York, with results suggesting a broader national movement among Asian voters, particularly in working-class communities.
The swing toward Trump is even deeper outside San Francisco, particularly in suburban and rural areas of the state.
Analysts attribute the shift in political trends to a variety of factors, including economic concerns, dissatisfaction with pandemic-era policies and cultural issues that resonated with conservative-leaning voters.
While California is likely to remain a Democratic stronghold, the results provide clear guidance on areas where Democrats need to up their game.
Meanwhile, Republicans could use the data as an opportunity to deepen long-standing policies. Democratic rule throughout the Golden State.
