“Calculating Compensation for Climate Damage in Developing Nations: An Opinion Piece”

As the planet warms, the main concern in international climate negotiations is to compensate developing nations for the damage they suffer. But which countries should receive the money? What are the extreme weather events affected by climate change?

Most countries last year signed an agreement to create a so-called “loss and damage” fund. He. She you will save A way for developed countries – which are disproportionately responsible for greenhouse gas emissions – to save money for Weak states dealing with the effects of climate change.

Part of the fund will help developing countries recover from catastrophic extreme weather. For example, it can be used to rebuild homes and hospitals after a flood or provide emergency food and cash transfers after a hurricane.

Some experts have Proposal The event attribution flag can be used to determine how funds are distributed. Attributing Events attempts to determine the causes of extreme weather events—in particular, whether human-caused climate change played a role.

But we have new leaf He explains that event attribution is not yet a good way to calculate compensation for countries vulnerable to climate change. An alternative strategy is needed.

What is an attribution event?

Extreme weather events are complex and caused by multiple factors. The science of extreme event attribution primarily seeks to work out Whether man-made climate change or natural variability in climate contributed to these events.

For example, a recent study found that heavy rain antiquities New Zealand flooding in February was about 30% more intense Because of human influence on the climate system.

Attribution science is advancing rapidly. It increasingly focuses on extreme rain events, which in the past were difficult to study. But it is still an inconsistent and robust method for estimating the costs and impacts of extreme events.

Why can’t we use it?

Event attribution relies on both observational weather data and climate model simulations.

Most commonly, two types of climate model simulations are used: those that include the effects of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, and those that exclude them. Comparing the two types of simulations allows scientists to estimate how climate change will affect the likelihood and severity of extreme events.

But climate models mainly simulate processes in the atmosphere and oceans. They don’t simulate the damage caused by an extreme weather event – such as the number of people who died from a heat wave or the loss of infrastructure during a flood.

To directly simulate the effects of an extreme event, we need to know the exact extent to which weather components such as temperature and precipitation caused damage. in some cases, it can be determined. But they require high-quality data, such as hospital admissions, which are rarely available in most parts of the world.

Nor are climate models good at simulating some extreme events, such as thunderstorms or high winds. That’s because such events are sporadic and tend to occur over small areas. This makes modeling them more difficult than, say, a heat wave affecting a large area.

So if “loss and damage” funding decisions rely heavily on event attribution, a low-income country that has been hit by a heatwave may receive more support from a country hit by a storm or high wind, than the damage caused by it.

Furthermore, event attribution is not yet able to estimate how climate change caused the damage associated with the so-called “complexExtreme events.

Compound events refer to cases where more than one extreme event occurs simultaneously in adjacent, or consecutively in one area. Examples include a drought followed by a heat wave, or a rise in sea level which makes the damage from a tsunami worse.

How can we proceed?

Attribution of events has not yet advanced far enough to account for “loss and damage” from climate change.

Instead, our paper proposes using “loss and damage” funds along with foreign aid spending to support recovery in low-income countries following any extreme events in which human-induced climate change may have played a role.

We also provide four key recommendations for using event attribution to estimate “loss and damage” in the future. here they are:

1. Helping developing countries use event attribution techniques: So far, an attribution has occurred largely conducted by rich countries in their regions

2. Treat more types of extreme eventsHurricanes, hailstorms, and lightning greatly exceed the ability of climate models used to attribute events because they are local and complex. New techniques should be attempted to examine these events

3. Further research into the effects and costs of extreme eventsFew studies have attempted to attribute the costs of extreme events to climate change. More efforts are needed, particularly in low-income countries

4. Combine event referral with other knowledgeAid: Scientists and experts in the field of aid and policy-making should collaborate in developing a strategy for the use of event-attribution information. A better understanding of the needs of policymakers and the limitations of event attribution science can lead to further useful studies.

increasing burden

Low-income countries contribute relatively little to global emissions. Compensation from rich countries is vital to help them manage increasing burden climate damage.

But distributing this money fairly is a challenge. Until the field of event referral advances, over-reliance on event referral is a risky strategy.

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