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The dissonance that emerged from last week’s tax-and-spend Labor budget shows no signs of abating.
Trust in Government among business and financial leaders, assiduously courted by Rachel Reeves before and immediately after the election, is rapidly dissolving.
What worries Reeves is that the government’s loosening of fiscal barriers is one of the factors slowing the path to lower interest rates.
This is important to homeowners, buyers and businesses across the country. Any reductions in the Bank of England’s borrowing costs are welcome.
The latest reduction from 5 per cent to 4.75 per cent in the base rate will come as a relief. But computer models are being updated in the city following revisions to growth and cost of living forecasts.
Decline: Trust in government among business and financial leaders, courted assiduously by Rachel Reeves before and immediately after the election, is rapidly dissolving.
Hopes for a December cut have faded and few expect rates to bottom until early 2026 rather than next year.
A new great uncertainty is a consequence of the result of the US presidential elections, on which Governor Andrew Bailey did not want to give his opinion.
Unless Donald Trump’s “efficiency” czar, Elon Musk, can find a way to brutally cut trillions of dollars from the federal budget, the renewal of the president-elect’s previous tax cuts will keep rates in the first place. official and market interest rates higher than before. provided.
Disappointment at the pace of interest rate cuts in the UK does not just come from free market advocates.
The leftist Public Policy Research Institute also demands that the Bank “go further and faster.”
The only ray of hope for those who wanted a bolder Bank to support a strong recovery was the near-unanimous 8-1 vote on the Monetary Policy Committee that sets interest rates. The American economist Catherine Mann was the only one who resisted.
Several of Britain’s listed companies warn that the Budget will make life harder for both financial performance and consumers.
The country’s second largest supermarket, Sainsbury’s, warns that food price crises are not over as it struggles with a £140m rise in its tax bill due to the employer’s National Insurance raid.
BT says it faces extra costs of £100m and broadcaster ITV warns advertising revenue will be hit. Meanwhile, farmers continue to raise a fuss over taxation of deaths.
The pension fund reforms, which Reeves has not yet implemented, are unlikely to generate much confidence that a new wave of entrepreneurship can be unleashed any time soon.
At a large meeting of city advisers and corporate chiefs this week, it was nearly impossible to find anyone who believed Reeves had done or would do anything to boost the company.
The great last hope seemed to be Donald Trump and a great revival of the mergers and acquisitions market. This would be great for the revenue generating ability of investment banks and other advisory firms.
But it could also see more undervalued British FTSE 350 companies disappear into the hands of private and foreign capital. Tragic.
Pharmaceutical pain
Astrazeneca and its CEO Pascal Soriot are rapidly losing friends in the investment community as their share price plummets following their troubles in China.
Disturbingly, investors only learned of the extent of the problem, including the arrest of the head of its Chinese operations, Leon Wang, through local news reports.
The conviction of up to 100 employees on fraud charges suggests something is seriously wrong in the country, which is the second largest generator of sales after the United States.
Soriot apparently believes that the less said the better, for fear of damaging carefully cultivated relations with Beijing, which abhors adverse publicity in the West.
That doesn’t mean the company isn’t looking to put out the flames. He is understood to have assembled a team of negotiators, including legal experts, to urgently resolve the issues.
A call with City analysts earlier this week, which focused on allegations surrounding its breakthrough cancer drug Tagrisso, failed to allay concerns.
The usual response of FTSE companies to unexpected developments is to set up an “independent” investigation to calm nerves.
But there is nothing normal about doing business with an authoritarian and secretive regime with complete control over the media and the judiciary.
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