Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said La Niña is over but will re-form later this year
La Nina is over! Australia’s miserable weather is finally coming to an end after months of endless rain – here’s what it means to you
- The Bureau of Meteorology said the 2021-2022 La Niña is over, but may be re-forming
- Four out of seven forecasts predict the La Niña will reform during the spring
- Negative IOD and high sea temperatures mean more rain in winter
The intense La Niña weather that swept over Australia has finally ended.
The Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday that the weather pattern was finally over, after helping for months to bring major rainfall across Australia.
Meteorologists observed changes in trade winds, sea surface temperature and subsurface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
Those factors indicated a shift to neutral conditions, said the agency’s head of long-term forecasting, Dr. Andrew Watkins.t
Unfortunately, this doesn’t change the prospects of a lot of rain this winter for most of Australia, said Dr. Watkins.
The intense weather in La Niña is over after seven months of record-breaking rain and flooding
Climate models show that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will bring above-average rainfall across most of Australia this winter into spring.
“A negative IOD increases the likelihood of above-average winter and spring rainfall for much of Australia,” the BOM said.
“It also increases the chance of warmer days and nights for Northern Australia.”
There is also a 50 percent chance that La Niña will form later in 2022.
“This is about double the normal chance.”
The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) announced Tuesday that the majority of its indicators (above) say the La Niña is now at neutral levels from 2021 to 2022, but will be reformed in the spring.
Dr Watkins back-to-back La Niñas are common.
“Since 1900, we get them about half the time,” he said.
“A three-year-old La Niña is less common, and we’ve only seen it three times since the middle of the last century.”
Increased sea temperatures around Australia’s north and west coasts will also increase the likelihood of above-average rainfall this winter, said Dr Watkins.
Those warmer temperatures also tend to bring wetter-than-normal conditions to much of Australia.
Experts believe the La Niña will re-form later this year and bring more wet weather; it has been reformed before in 1954-1957, 1973-1976 and 1998-2001
The latest La Niña weather event saw heavy rains around Australia since its announcement in November 2021.
Rain and flood records were broken along Australia’s east coast as Sydney experienced its wettest autumn on record.
The La Niña also brought relentless rain that led to severe flooding in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland from late February to early March.
Sydneysiders will see some of the expected gloomy winter weather from Wednesday, with just one sunny day on Saturday this week.
The cloudy weather will be accompanied by low temperatures with a four day maximum temperature of just 20C expected on Friday.
Perth will see similar temperatures combined with showers on Wednesday and Thursday.
A negative Indian Ocean dipole and above-average seawater temperatures are likely to lead to above-average rainfall this winter
Canberra residents will feel the chill this week with lows of 0C expected on Wednesday, alongside cloudy conditions heading into next week.
Weather will be much brighter in Brisbane with maximum temperatures expected to stay below 20 degrees for the next four days with sunny conditions.
Darwin will also be sunny with highs in the low 30s and lows in the low 20s.
Adelaide residents can expect gloomy weather with rain forecast for Wednesday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Melburnians will also see showers Wednesday, Friday and Sunday with clouds hanging out for the rest of the week.
Showers are consistently forecast into next week in Hobart, alongside minimums of 7C and 8C in the coming days.
MAJOR CITIES FOUR DAY FORECAST
Wednesday Shower or two. Min 10 Max 22
Thursday showers. Min 12 Max 20
Friday Mostly sunny. Min 7 Max 19
Saturday Mostly sunny. Min 7 Max 19
Wednesday showers. Min 13 Max 17
Thursday Mostly sunny. Min 11 Max 18
The showers will subside on Friday. Min 12 Max 17
Saturday The showers are increasing. Min 10 Max 16
Wednesday Early shower or two. Min 8 Max 16
Thursday Partly cloudy. Min 11 Max 17
The showers will subside on Friday. Min 12 Max 16
Saturday Partly cloudy. Min 9 Max 16
Wednesday Partly cloudy. Min 3 Max 14
Showers develop on Thursday. Min 7 Max 16
Friday Shower or two. Min 8 Max 13
Saturday Shower or two. Min 7 Max 14
Wednesday Mostly sunny. Min 0 Max 13
Thursday Partly cloudy. Min 1 Max 14
Friday Shower or two. Min 5 Max 14
Saturday Partly cloudy. Min 5 Max 14
Wednesday Mostly sunny. Min 9 Max 18
Thursday Mostly sunny. Min 7 Max 19
Friday Mostly sunny. Min 9 Max 20
Saturday Sunny. Min 9 Max 21
Wednesday Sunny. Min 10 Max2 3
Thursday Mostly sunny. Min 11 Max 23
Friday sunny. Min 10 Max 23
Saturday Sunny. Min 10 Max 22
Wednesday Sunny. Min 20 Max 33
Thursday Sunny. Min 21 Max 32
Friday sunny. Min 21 Max 32
Saturday Mostly sunny. Min 20 Max 32