Younger voters are abandoning the Greens, creating a bleak electoral outlook for the minor party, according to a new poll.
A Resolve Political Monitor poll for nine newspapers showed that voters between 18 and 34 years old reduced their primary vote from 27 to 23 percent in the last quarter of the year.
The figure is below the level recorded in the last elections.
Greens leader Adam Bandt would be especially concerned about the loss of support for the major parties in inner-city electorates, where the upstart minor party has traditionally enjoyed its greatest success.
Resolve director Jim Reed said voters were starting to “move away” from the Greens in demographics where they traditionally flourished.
“We’ve noticed a drop in the Green vote nationally this year, but what’s more worrying for them will be that the loss is hardest on their traditional base of younger and inner-city voters,” he said.
“Any minor party needs its percentage of votes to be concentrated in specific seats, because if it is too dispersed, it does not become elected representatives.”
In particular, it puts pressure on the Greens to retain the three Queensland seats they won from the major parties in the 2022 federal election: Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith.
Greens leader Adam Bandt would be especially concerned about the loss of support for the major parties in inner-city electorates, where the upstart minor party has traditionally enjoyed its greatest success.
October’s Queensland state election could be an ominous omen, with the Greens returning the South Brisbane seat to Labor and barely holding on to Maiwar with a narrow victory over the LNP.
In public, Bandt’s speech has been one of expansion, nominating Brisbane’s Moreton, Wills and Macnamara in Melbourne, Richmond on the New South Wales north coast and Sturt in South Australia as seats the Greens will aim for in the next elections.
However, Labor and Coalition operatives say they have heard it all before and that the Greens’ big predictions of electoral success did not materialize in further victories in Victoria and New South Wales in the last federal election.
Since the last election, the Greens have also lost a senator and Victoria’s Lidia Thorpe left the party in February 2023 due to different positions towards the Indigenous Voice proposal to Parliament.
He later said he would file a Human Rights Commission against the Greens, claiming he experienced racism during his time in the organisation.
The Greens, in return, sparked a Labor defection in the Upper House when Western Australian senator Fatima Payman crossed the floor in June to vote with the minority party on a motion recognizing Palestinian statehood.
This was part of a turbulent year for relations between the Greens and the Albanian government.
A Resolve Political Monitor poll for nine newspapers showed that voters between 18 and 34 years old reduced their vote in the primaries from 27 to 23 percent in the last quarter of the year (file image)
After loudly demanding additional measures on two Labor housing bills, the Greens finally relented and passed both without amendment in the last session of Parliament in November.
During the previous deadlock, the Greens were often forced to defend themselves against Labor attacks, claiming they were frustrating efforts to help renters and first-home buyers, two core potential support groups.
Both Labor and the Coalition have turned against the Greens over condemnation of Israel’s military actions in Gaza and across the Middle East.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese accused the Greens of supporting violent protest actions and upsetting many voters by falsely claiming that Australia’s role in the conflict was contributing to “genocide”.
“It is tragic that the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people are being undermined by some people engaging in activities that completely alienate the Australian public,” he said in June.
“It is unacceptable that some Green senators and MPs who took part in this out-of-office and online demonstration knowingly and deliberately spread misinformation.”
The bombing of Melbourne’s Adass Israel synagogue earlier this month led to accusations that pro-Palestinian protests, largely supported by the Greens, have led to a rise in violent antisemitism.
New polls, conducted for The Australian, have also shown support for the Greens fell nationally over the last quarter from 13 per cent to 12 per cent.