Britain’s speedy recovery has proved the doomsters wrong, says ALEX BRUMMER

Well, that didn’t last long! The doomsayers wallowing in the idea that Britain was in recession in the second half of 2023 should know better.

Britain may lack the dynamism of the United States, but we should never underestimate the resilience of our services sector, which accounts for almost 80 per cent of output and rebounded in January.

That’s not to say the UK’s growth prospects in 2024 are glorious.

But anyone following the mood of business and how well businesses and financial services are doing around the world might be inclined to think that last week’s Budget forecast for a 0.8 percent expansion in 2024 It can be too gloomy.

None of this will stop opposition politicians from claiming that the Conservatives ruined the economy.

It will give Conservative candidates a better narrative to take to the country: even if voters are already fed up with Rishi Sunak.

The main drivers of the 0.2 percent rebound in January are retail trade and the return to home construction.

Despite the Bank of England reporting a rise in mortgage arrears, the era of more normalized interest rates is doing less damage than imagined.

The prospect of a first reduction in the cost of borrowing, by June, remains alive, regardless of the difficulties in containing inflation in the United States.

Having cut national insurance twice in four months (to make work better paid), Jeremy Hunt is on a mission to do more.

He has not given up on the idea of ​​abolition in the face of claims of a £41bn cost.

The public needs to be reminded that National Insurance Contributions (NICs) can determine state pension entitlements, but are not reserved for the NHS, benefits or anything else.

It is simply a payroll tax and the arguments in favor of its abolition or combination with the income tax are well established.

The mythology around NICs explains why the Chancellor has so far made little progress on his reductions and has promised much more in the future.

confidence trick

Challenger banking on both sides of the Atlantic is constantly changing.

In the UK, Tesco Bank was sold to Barclays and Nationwide needs to persuade its members that buying Virgin Money is a good use of reserves.

Metro Bank, under the tutelage of Colombian owner Jaime Gilinski Bacal, is looking for a way to make a comeback.

Across the pond, former Trump-era Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has emerged as the white knight of troubled lenders, pouring $1 billion (£780m) and new leadership into New York Community Bancorp, which is struggling with real estate losses.

Metro is having some success in stemming the flow of red ink after layoffs and the end of its unique appeal of opening branches seven days a week.

Savings outflows are being curbed by increasing rates paid to savers and total deposits have risen 1 per cent to £15.62bn since June.

Everything comes at a cost and, amid fierce competition in the home loan market, there are questions about when and how profits can be recovered.

One possibility is a drive-by shooting, as described by former Royal Bank of Scotland boss Fred Goodwin in the 1990s.

However, the Big Four banks, seeking to escape branching, are unlikely to intervene. Banking is about trust.

Mnuchin’s presence has already done wonders for New York Community Bancorp. The route back to the Metro is slow, winding and more dangerous.

Saudi raid

The sporting ambitions of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund PIF are limitless.

The Telegraph reports that, following forays into football, boxing and golf, he now has his eyes set on tennis with a proposal to merge the men’s and women’s circuits.

It’s great to see Riyadh, which is not known for promoting women’s rights, making an impact in the equality space.

It is unclear where this leaves sports finance pioneer CVC, which last year pumped £150m into the women’s circuit.

What is certain is that finance, streaming rights and social media are transforming sports ownership forever.