Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is facing stormy times at the weekend box office, where it could tumble 71.6 percent to $30 million-plus in its second outing.
If these projections are correct, the superhero picture is in danger of suffering the worst second-weekend decline ever for a Hollywood superhero picture opening $100 million or more at the domestic box office, and one of the worst for such a film.
No superhero movie that’s a member of this club has dropped 70 percent or more; DCs Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice comes closest at 69.1 percent. Among the Marvel Cinematic Universe titles, last year’s Thor: Love and Thunder saw the largest drop, namely 67.7 percent. And of any movie that starts with $100 million or more, the finale Harry Potter pic, released in 2011, tops the list of biggest second-weekend dropouts with a 72 percent drop, according to Comscore.
Ant Man 3 opened to $120 million over the four-day Presidents Day weekend, including a franchise-best $105.5 million for the three days (the three-day number will be used as the official comparison going forward). But bad word of mouth is clearly hurting the movie, along with competition from a new offering Cocaine Bear, which is taking away from younger adults (and especially men). A historic storm on the west coast isn’t helping either.
Universals Cocaine Bear – even beat them Ant Man 3 on Friday with $8.7 million versus $8.3 million — is on track to open at an estimated $21.21 million, beating expectations. Cocaine Beer’Its $8.7 million Friday gross included $2 million in Thursday night previews, so it should fall behind Ant Man 3 sometime on Saturday. It opened overseas in 50 markets, where it is expected to gross $5 million.
Directed by Elisabeth Banks, Cocaine Bear is a dark comedy about a drug smuggling operation that goes horribly wrong when a 500-pound bear swallows a duffel bag of cocaine and goes on a murderous rampage in a small Georgia town. Banks also produced the high-profile genre picture alongside Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Max Handelman, Brian Duffield and Aditya Sood. The feature film earned a B-Cinema score, which, while low, is generally not a problem for films centered on horror.
In addition to Cocaine BearLionsgate and Kingdom Story Company Jesus Revolution opens better than expected. The faith-based feature has a glowing A+ Cinemascore and made $6.95 million Friday, including an estimated $3.3 million from early Wednesday and Thursday screenings. Jesus Revolution is expected to come in at a strong No. 3 with a whopping $14 million to $15 million. The 1970s feature film is inspired by true events in a revivalist Christian movement that swept America.
Figures will be updated on Sunday morning.