- FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver says President Joe Biden is no longer the “clear favorite” to win the 2024 presidential race.
- Opinion changed from the previous year because Biden is not running a ‘real’ campaign
- ‘It’s time for the White House to shut up or shut up,’ says Silver
President Joe Biden is no longer the “clear favorite” to win in 2024 and appears to be “losing” momentum in the campaign, says political analyst Nate Silver.
In a Substack post on Mondaythe FiveThirtyEight founder concluded that Biden “should resign if he was not going to be able to run a normal re-election campaign.”
“If you had asked me a year ago, I would have told you that Joe Biden was a reasonably clear favorite in the event of a rematch against Donald Trump,” he wrote in his Silver Bulletin post.
Now, Silver maintains, “it’s time for the White House to calm down or shut up.”
President Joe Biden is no longer the ‘clear favorite’ to win the 2024 presidential race, according to top pollster Nate Silver
FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver (pictured) published a lengthy post on Monday arguing why Biden is losing any lead he had over Trump a year ago in the race for the White House.
Biden, 81, is on track for a rematch with former President Donald Trump, 77, in 2024 with no real competitors in the Democratic primary.
If asked in February 2023, Silver claims he would have said Biden was the favorite to win against Trump by a 65:35 margin. But the president’s conduct during the last year of the campaign, along with his age and fitness for office, have changed his mind.
Things like participating in the pre-Super Bowl interview are important to running a presidential campaign, Silver said, something Biden opted not to do this month after skipping tradition last year.
“This really isn’t too much to ask,” Silver argued. “These are the kinds of interviews that every other recent president has done.”
Recent polls show Trump continuing to close the gap on Biden and even surpass him in some hypothetical general election matchups.
The most recent poll considered by FiveThirtyEight shows Trump ahead of Biden by 22 points, but most of those from earlier this month separate them by a handful of percentage points.
In most hypothetical general election polls, former President Donald Trump has closed the gap on Biden or is ahead of the current president, a clear change from the previous year, when Biden often emerged victorious.
‘[H]”We’re losing now and there’s no plan to fix the problems other than hoping the polls are wrong or that voters will see the race differently when they have more time to focus on it,” Silver says.
A poll this month shows that a whopping 86 percent of voters believe Biden is mentally unfit for another term.
It comes after the Justice Department released a report revealing its assessment that Biden has a “poor memory” and “impaired facilities” and would therefore not recommend charges in the classified documents case and would therefore not appear. before a jury in the same way he did before. Special Prosecutor Robert Hur.
‘[E]”Even the most optimistic Democrats, if you read between the lines, are actually arguing that Democrats could win despite Biden and not because of him,” Silver wrote in his argument that Biden can no longer easily win in 2024.
“Biden is probably a below-replacement-level candidate at this point because Americans have many extremely rational concerns about the prospect of a Commander in Chief turning 86 at the end of his second term,” he added. “It is entirely reasonable to consider this a disqualification.”
Silver believes Biden could still drop out of the race before August and allow Democrats to choose a different candidate at the convention in Chicago, Illinois, over the summer.