The odds now favor Donald Trump in the Kamala Harris betting markets, as international bettors put their money behind a possible return of the former president to the White House.
Trump has not led Harris for more than a month in the Average RealClearPolitics of betting markets that allow betting on the winner.
The average now gives Trump a 50.1 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 48.6 percent, in a race that many political pundits now refuse to call because it is so close.
That puts him in a better position than the average of the RCP’s national public polls, where Harris leads Trump 49 to 47.
Even that average likely overstates Harris’ standing, because the winner is determined by state-by-state results, where Trump has an inherent advantage in the Electoral College.
Trump’s boost in wealthy preferences follows a September in which Trump beat Harris in several key battleground states, with Trump winning Arizona and Georgia, along with North Carolina (a state Trump won twice). He lost to Joe Biden in Arizona and Georgia in 2020.
Former President Donald Trump now leads the odds to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris
Harris has narrow leads in Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Pennsylvania, where Trump campaigns on Wednesday, is tied for the PCR average.
Among a variety of betting sites, Trump now leads Harris on Bovada, Points Bet and Polymarket. He still trails her 47 to 48 on Betfair, and they are tied on Bwin and Smarkets, making the result essentially an even money bet.
DailyMail.com’s own prediction model has Trump taking the lead in mid-September, which coincided with his gains in state polls, even though voters declared in post-debate polls that Harris got the better of him. he.
The intervening period has seen strong economic data that could boost Democrats, along with chaotic developments abroad that could help Trump, who has repeatedly warned of World War III if he is defeated.
Harris wins in 55 of 100 simulations in the five thirty eight blog model.