Property prices near the beach and just an hour’s drive from major city centers have fallen below the $1 million mark as new data shows their affordability will only improve.
National house prices fell for a seventh straight month in November with double-digit declines this year alone in Sydney and beach areas on Queensland’s NSW Central Coast and Sunshine Coast, data from CoreLogic showed.
Economists expect house prices to continue falling through the end of next year as the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to raise interest rates from its current nine-year high of 2.85%.
Sydney is Australia’s worst-hit market, with the median house price falling 11.9 percent this year to $1,243,126.
Property prices near the beach just an hour’s drive from a major city center have fallen below $1 million and are expected to become more affordable (pictured is Ettalong on the NSW Central Coast where the median house prices rose by 10.9 percent or $ 116,978 are down this year to $954,252)
Melbourne, which saw weaker price increases during the boom, saw average house prices fall by 8.1 percent to $915,005 in 2022.
Australia’s real estate market peaked in April, during the era of the record-low RBA cash rate of 0.1 percent.
Since then, the Reserve Bank has raised interest rates seven consecutive times as inflation rose to a 32-year high of 7.3 percent.
This has caused Sydney’s median home and unit price to fall a combined 10.9 percent this year to $1,025,684.
This has also pushed median house prices in beach areas, just a short drive from Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane, below the seven-digit mark, with some suburbs falling by double digits since April.
Bateau Bay, on the NSW Central Coast, has seen average property prices fall 13.5 percent or $145,885 since peaking in April to $936,442.
On the Gold Coast, south of Brisbane, Tugun’s median house price is down 7.2 percent or $76,479 to $992,090, peaking later in June
Beachfront suburbs where prices are below $1 million
BATEAU BAY, NSW Central Coast: $936,442
ETTALONG, NSW Central Coast: $954,252
RUNAWAY BAY, Gold Coast: $910,457
TUGUN, Gold Coast: $992,090
PEREGIAN SPRINGS, Sunshine Coast: $999,006
TEWANTIN, Sunshine Coast: $907,070
MORNINGTON, Melbourne: $933,022
Source: CoreLogic Mid-Range Homes – House and Apartment – Data for November 2022
Ettalong Beach, also on NSW’s Central Coast, has seen its price fall 10.9 percent or $116,978 to $954,252.
It’s a similar story in Mornington, an hour’s drive from Melbourne, where the median home price has fallen 9.2 percent or $100,140 from its peak in March to $933,022.
On the Gold Coast, south of Brisbane, Tugun’s median house price is down 7.2 percent or $76,479 to $992,090, peaking later in June.
Runaway Bay prices are down 9.9 percent or $100,478 to $910,457.
The Sunshine Coast, north of Brisbane, saw larger double-digit declines with prices in Tewantin, near Noosa, falling 13.6 percent or $142,588 to $907,070 since peaking in April.
Peregian Springs saw the average real estate price drop 11.8 percent or $136,831 to $999,006.
The prestigious suburbs on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast have suffered sharp declines as Brisbane’s average house price fell just 0.8 per cent this year to $798,552 as values continued to rise after the previous rate hikes.
AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver expects Australian house prices to fall by 15 to 20 percent from the peak in 2022 to the trough in September 2023.
It’s a similar story in Mornington, an hour’s drive from Melbourne, where the median home price has fallen 9.2 percent or $100,140 from its peak in March to $933,022
‘The main causes of the recession remain: poor affordability; rising mortgage rates; a rotation in spending from goods, including homes, back to services; pressure on the cost of living, making it even more difficult to save for a down payment; and poor confidence from homebuyers,” he said.
Since November 2021, the banks have had to assess whether potential borrowers are able to cope with a three percentage point increase in variable mortgage rates, which has significantly reduced the banks’ lending capacity.
The RBA’s rate hike in November meant that a couple with children, with a combined income of $150,000, can now borrow just $781,200, down 22 percent or $214,600 from $995,800 in April before the Reserve’s tightening cycle Bank began, an analysis by RateCity showed.
The Sunshine Coast north of Brisbane had larger double-digit declines with prices in Tewantin, near Noosa, falling 13.6 percent or $142,588 to $907,070 since peaking in April
Someone buying a $1 million property with a 20 percent down payment would need to borrow $800,000.
Monthly payments on an $800,000 loan are up $1,118 from $3,075 to $4,193 since May, while a Commonwealth Bank variable loan was increased from 2.29 percent to 4.79 percent.
CoreLogic’s director of research, Tim Lawless, said the expiration of ultra-low two percent fixed rate mortgages in 2023 could exacerbate the downturn.
“An increase in fixed rate mortgage refinancing activity from the second quarter of next year adds to the downside risk of a higher mortgage crisis,” he said.
“It’s fair to say that housing risk remains on the downside as interest rates continue to rise and household balance sheets thin.”
House prices fall almost everywhere in November
SYDNEY: 1.5 percent lower in November and 11.9 percent lower in 2022 to $1,243,126
MELBOURNE: 1 percent lower in November and 8.1 percent lower in 2022 to $915,005
BRISBANE: 2.2 percent lower in November and 0.8 percent lower in 2022 to $798,552
ADELAIDE: Down 0.4 percent in November but up 10.2 percent in 2022 to $702,392
PERTH: up 0.1 percent in November and up 3.7 percent in 2022 to $585,989
HOBART: 2 percent lower in November and 4.7 percent lower in 2022 to $740,100
DARWIN: Down 0.3 percent but up 5.2 percent in 2022 to $588,972
CANBERRA: 1.3 percent down and 3.5 percent down in 2022 to $987,450
Source: CoreLogic median house price data for November 2022