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Australia weather misery for months as Indian Ocean dipole brings rain and higher temperatures

Millions of Australians are bracing for months of wet, cold conditions and flooding due to an unusual weather pattern in the Indian Ocean.

Strong offshore westerlies from a ‘negative Indian Ocean dipole’ will lead to above-average rainfall affecting eastern Australia for at least four months from early July.

Much of eastern Australia is up to four times more likely than usual to have significant rainfall from July to September, potentially putting 2022 in the top 20 percent of the wettest years on record.

Millions of Australians brace for months of wet, cold conditions and flooding due to unusual weather pattern in the Indian Ocean

Millions of Australians brace for months of wet, cold conditions and flooding due to unusual weather pattern in the Indian Ocean

Strong offshore westerly winds from a 'negative Indian Ocean dipole' will result in above-average rainfall in eastern Australia and will not stop for four months

Strong offshore westerly winds from a ‘negative Indian Ocean dipole’ will result in above-average rainfall in eastern Australia and will not stop for four months

After a few weeks of clear, dry days in Sydney, the city is getting a taste of the gloomy weather to come, with rain forecast from Sunday.

The NSW capital has a 70 percent chance of rain on Saturday and an 80 percent chance on Sunday, when heavy showers are forecast in the morning.

The Bureau of Meteorology predicts an 80 percent chance of exceeding average rainfall across much of the east coast from early July through at least late October.

Dr Matthew England said new work from climate modeling centers around the world indicated that an extremely rare 'triple La Niña' would likely be back before the summer of 2022-23.  (Photo a house in Lismore, in northern NSW, engulfed in flames while flooded)

Dr Matthew England said new work from climate modeling centers around the world indicated that an extremely rare ‘triple La Niña’ would likely be back before the summer of 2022-23. (Photo a house in Lismore, in northern NSW, engulfed in flames while flooded)

The Indian Ocean negative dipole (IOD) usually only occurs once every three to five years and lasts until late spring.

In the negative IOD, intense westerly winds mean warm water is concentrated off the coast of northwest WA and south of Indonesia.

As the warmer waters move eastward, clouds follow, bringing weather patterns that “ultimately bring rain to Australia.”

Australia looks set for a third consecutive summer of heavy rain and flooding as new research supports deteriorating conditions in La Niña becoming the norm

Australia looks set for a third consecutive summer of heavy rain and flooding as new research supports deteriorating conditions in La Niña becoming the norm

A 'negative Indian Ocean dipole' will bring above-average rainfall for much of eastern Australia

A ‘negative Indian Ocean dipole’ will bring above-average rainfall for much of eastern Australia

New South Wales, Queensland, Northern Territory, the ACT and northern Victoria will see wetter and cooler weather until at least the end of October, according to the weather forecasting agency.

The same phenomenon will make it colder in NSW, the ACT and southern Queensland.

But oddly enough, it will bring warmer temperatures to parts of Victoria, Tasmania, Northern Queensland, the Northern Territory.

Another quirk of the phenomenon is that minimum temperatures “will likely be warmer than the median for most of Australia except central WA.”

The agency said a “weakening of La Niña” and warmer-than-normal waters around northern Australia are affecting this outlook.

But outside the agency, research predicts a continuation of La Niña into next summer — which would likely be a repeat of the horrific flooding seen on the East Coast between February and April.

The lead researcher of a large-scale study of ocean currents altered by global warming, told the Daily Mail Australia that the changes that are making wet, cooler weather more likely for Australia are already underway.

More rain in Australia generally means more flooding and that seems even more likely if predictions of a so-called Triple La Nina come true

More rain in Australia generally means more flooding and that seems even more likely if predictions of a so-called Triple La Nina come true

Curiously, the phenomenon will bring warmer-than-average temperatures in parts of Victoria, Tasmania, Northern Queensland, the Northern Territory

Curiously, the phenomenon will bring warmer-than-average temperatures in parts of Victoria, Tasmania, Northern Queensland, the Northern Territory

Dr Matthew England said new work from climate modeling centers around the world indicated that an extremely rare ‘triple La Niña’ would likely be back before the summer of 2022-23.

La Niña weather events sometimes last two years, but three is rare and the last happened 20 years ago.

dr. England said the dreaded La Nina weather patterns will not only become more frequent, but also become more severe.

‘They don’t always get it right, but their first predictions say this La Niña won’t go away [and will be here] here all summer long,” said Dr. England to Daily Mail Australia.

Mike McPhaden, a senior researcher with the US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, echoed the prediction.

Highs from July to September are likely to be above the median for northern, southwestern coastal and far southeastern parts of Australia, but below the median for most other locations.

THE FIVE DAY WEATHER FORECAST IN YOUR CITY

SYDNEY:

Friday: Partly cloudy. Maximum: 19.

Saturday: Shower or two. Maximum 19 minutes 11.

Sunday: Showers. Maximum 19 minutes 11.

Monday: Shower or two. Maximum 19 minutes 12.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 20 minutes 10.

BRISBANE:

Friday: Mostly clear. Maximum: 23.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 23 minutes 10.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 23 minutes 11.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 22 minutes 13.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 23 minutes 12.

ADELAIDE:

Friday: Mostly clear. Maximum: 18.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Maximum 18 minutes 9.

Sunday: Cloudy. Maximum 17 minutes 10.

Monday: Showers. Maximum 15 minutes 11.

Tuesday: Showers abate. Maximum 15 minutes 9.

PERTH:

Friday: Showers. Maximum: 18.

Saturday: showers. Maximum 18 minutes 12.

Sunday: Showers abate. Maximum 19 minutes 12.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 19 minutes 8.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Maximum 20 minutes 8.

MELBOURNE:

Friday: Partly cloudy. Maximum: 15.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 15 minutes 8.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 16 minutes 5.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 17 minutes 9.

Tuesday: showers. Maximum 15 minutes 11.

CANBERRA:

Friday: Partly cloudy. Maximum: 15.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 15 minutes 1.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 15 Min 0.

Monday: Cloudy. Maximum 15 minutes 4.

Tuesday: showers. Maximum 13 minutes 5.

DARWIN:

Friday: clear. Maximum: 33.

Saturday: sunny. Maximum 33 minutes 21.

Sunday: sunny. Maximum 33 minutes 20.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 32 Min 21.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 33 minutes 22.

HOBART:

Friday: Shower or two. Maximum: 13.

Saturday: Shower or two clearings. Maximum 13 minutes 7.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 14 minutes 6.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Maximum 15 minutes 8.

Tuesday: Shower or two. Maximum 14 minutes 9.

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