It is “virtually certain” that this year will be the hottest in 125,000 years, as the true toll of extreme heat in Australia reveals.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service found that the previous world record for October heat, set in 2019, was beaten by 0.4 degrees, with the past five months being the hottest consecutive months on record globally.
“We can say with near certainty that 2023 will be the hottest year on record,” said Samantha Burgess, the service’s deputy director.
The Bureau of Meteorology has warned that “nearly all of Australia” will suffer “above-median maximum temperatures” this summer.
“Most of Australia is at least two and a half times more likely than normal to experience unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures,” the report said.
“For unusually high maximum temperatures, the chances are more than four times as likely for southern and western Western Australia, as well as parts of the northern Northern Territory and Queensland.”
“Unusually high temperatures correspond to the warmest 20 percent of the November to January periods, 1981 to 2018.”
The Bureau of Meteorology has warned that “nearly all of Australia” will face intense heat this summer.
Bushfires, expected to be made worse by extreme heat, have caused 299 deaths in Australia over 10 years
An El Niño event and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are expected to lead to even warmer temperatures in summer, with the strong El Niño expected to persist into the fall.
Extreme temperatures, coupled with a large amount of greenery resulting from last year’s record rains, have already sparked an increase in bushfire warnings across Australia.
The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare found extreme heat was a leading cause of hospitalization over the past 10 years.
It accounted for 7,104 hospitalizations for injuries, most of them in Queensland and Victoria, and 293 deaths.
New South Wales recorded the highest number of bushfire deaths with 91, followed by Queensland with 60 and WA with 42. The national total was 299.
“Evidence has shown that over the past three decades there has been an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as extreme heat, bushfires, extreme cold, rain and storm-related events, including heavy rainfall, floods and cyclones. ” said Australian Institute of Health and Welfare spokesperson Dr Heather Swanston.
“We see that reflected in hospitalizations and deaths.”
This week alone, large parts of Australia are expected to be hit by a heatwave.
Mild to severe heatwave to hit northern Australia on Thursday (forecast above)
South-west Queensland, north-east South Australia and north-west New South Wales are expected to experience mild to severe heatwaves from Monday.
Isolated parts of western Cape York, inland parts of Queensland, northern WA and the eastern Top End of the NT will be affected from Tuesday and Wednesday.
By Thursday, the heatwave is expected to spread to a large part of the north of the country.
Emma Bacon, founder of Sweltering Cities, an organization that helps warm weather communities campaign for cooler infrastructure, said persistent hot weather was starting to affect Australians’ wellbeing.
“The problem lies in the way we build our cities and our homes. They are not suited to the current climate, let alone the increasingly hot climate,” she told Nine Newspapers.
“The coming summers will be the hottest of our lives, and the situation will get worse and worse. This is something difficult to understand: the unprecedented heat we will feel is not something we have ever experienced before.
“Hotter summers have lasting effects on people. Different people are affected, there are those who are older, who have disabilities or chronic illnesses and who are pregnant.
“Millions of people will be affected at the same time. »
The results come just weeks before Cop28, the United Nations’ annual climate change conference, where governments will discuss how to limit rising temperatures.
The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare found extreme heat was a leading cause of hospitalization over the past 10 years.
