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The NASCAR Cup Series returns after a two-week Olympic break Sunday night in Richmond.
There are just four races left before the 10-race playoffs begin. The schedule to finish the regular season looks a bit different, too. The playoffs start a week later than usual thanks to the Olympics, and Watkins Glen doesn’t appear on the schedule until the postseason. Michigan follows Richmond, with the typical regular-season finale at Daytona before this year’s regular-season finale at Darlington.
If you haven’t yet remembered what’s at stake over the next month, we’ve got you covered. Here’s a quick rundown before Sunday’s race.
Already locked up
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Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez and Austin Cindric
With 12 drivers having already visited the victory track and 16 playoff spots available, there will be a maximum of 16 winners during the regular season. That guarantees that each of the drivers mentioned above will be in the playoffs.
Larson leads the Cup Series with four wins and is also atop the points standings despite missing the Coca-Cola 600 due to the Indianapolis 500 delay. Hamlin and Bell are tied with three wins each and Blaney is the only driver with two wins. Everyone else has just one win.
In good shape
Truex is in the midst of another strange season. He’s seventh in the points standings, but he hasn’t won a race and has only finished in the top five four times despite leading 461 laps. He’s had some very bad luck in his last full season, but he feels like a title contender if he can get a win or two.
That win could come Sunday at Richmond. Truex is one of the favorites at the short track and has three wins there since the start of the 2019 season.
In… at this moment
As you can see from the points totals for the three drivers above, Truex is way, way, way ahead of them. Unless there are two new winners at Richmond and Michigan, Truex could clinch a playoff spot without a win with two races remaining in the playoffs.
Gibbs has struggled of late and needs to bounce back to keep his playoff spot. He has fallen from seventh to 11th over the summer and has finished outside the top 20 in five of his last seven races. The only bright spot in that streak is a third-place finish at Chicago, and there are no more tracks before the playoffs begin.
Buescher had three wins at the end of the regular season last year. We’re not going to rule out something like that this year, even if it’s unlikely. Chastain has only finished in the top five twice and hasn’t been a major factor this season. But her ability to avoid terrible finishes has been tremendous.
Abroad with a real opportunity
Wallace is just seven points behind Chastain and should be a factor at both Michigan and Daytona. He hasn’t finished lower than 13th since he was 34th at New Hampshire and fifth at Indianapolis. We think Wallace makes the postseason. And Chastain could be the man out without a win.
I need a victory
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Chase Briscoe (469), Kyle Busch (440), Todd Gilliland (434), Michael McDowell (404)
Everyone else behind them is under 400 points. It seems a little incomprehensible that Busch is on this list, but it’s been a disastrous second season at Richard Childress Racing for the two-time Cup Series champion. He hasn’t finished in the top five in the last 11 races and has only finished in the top 10 once since that fourth-place finish at Dover. In that span he’s failed to finish five races (four by accident) and has finished outside the top 20 seven different times. There’s little reason to believe Busch will find the speed to make the playoffs at this point. Maybe we’ll be surprised.
Briscoe is the top driver in Stewart-Haas Racing’s final season before moving to Joe Gibbs Racing to replace Truex. He’s fallen off the pace since finishing second at New Hampshire. Gilliland hasn’t finished in the top five all season, but he’s outpacing teammate McDowell. If we had to pick any of these four drivers to win, it would be Busch. But that would be a very small bet.
