Houston, we have a problem!
That is surely the sentiment echoing in the Labor Party caucus today, following the publication of an opinion poll showing Peter Dutton as the preferred Prime Minister over Anthony Albanese.
That is the same Dutton we are constantly told is unelectable and deeply unpopular.
Now, when compared to Albanese, he is the preferred candidate. What does that say about how the Prime Minister is tracking?
But the bad news for Albo doesn’t end there. Labour’s primary vote is through the roof, falling to just 28 per cent, a new low for this government.
Seems a bit shaky in the polls, Albo: Normally, when an opposition leader overtakes a prime minister as preferred prime minister, it’s a death knell for a government. That is what the Prime Minister faced today.
To put it in context, Labour’s primary vote in the last election was 32.6 per cent and that alone helped it achieve the narrowest of parliamentary majorities.
And whether it’s managing the economy, national security or the cost of living crisis, respondents believe Dutton is more capable of dealing with each issue than the prime minister.
The crisis in the Labor leadership can be traced back to Albo’s mishandling of the Voice referendum.
He prioritized the issue over managing a failing economy just as voters were increasingly strained by higher mortgage payments and grocery bills.
It now finds itself in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis, a housing crisis, fears over soaring immigration and a sinking economy while interest rates remain stubbornly high.
Each of them has problems that voters do not consider skillful in handling.
Usually when an opposition leader overtakes a prime minister as preferred prime minister, it is a death knell for a government.
It may even spell the end of the prime minister before he gets to an election, if there are obvious contenders to take power waiting in the wings.
Anthony Albanese has his party room numbers stitched perfectly. Upstairs, he relaxes playing football with his fiancée Jodie Haydon last Friday.
When Kevin Rudd overtook John Howard as preferred prime minister, the Labor leader began measuring The Lodge’s new curtains.
When Tony Abbott overtook Julia Gillard, she lost the Labor leadership. When Abbott passed Rudd 2.0, the Coalition knew the election was in their power.
Like Dutton, Abbott was another opposition leader deemed unelectable.
Bill Shorten never dominated the preferred prime minister rating, which perhaps explains why he fell short in two elections before Labor turned to Albanese.
Albo finally overtook Scott Morrison as the preferred prime minister, at which point there was no turning back for the former prime minister’s portfolio.
Without a doubt, Dutton’s lead is the narrowest possible: ahead of Albo as preferred prime minister by just 36 per cent to 35 per cent.
Meanwhile, 29 percent of voters can’t even bring themselves to prefer either candidate.
And it is the first time that Dutton has come out on top, only in Resolve’s only opinion poll.
Newspoll, for example, still had Albo at the helm the last time it tested voters’ moods.
But if the rise in Dutton’s personal ratings continues, and even sees him extend his lead in the coming months, it will stoke leadership tensions within the Labor Party and could lead to the first victory for an opposition leader in his first mandate against a first-term government since 1931.
It could also delay Labour’s calling an early election, hoping to turn its fortunes around over the summer before facing voters in the flat half of 2025.
Is it possible that Albo will not even make it to the elections? Rolled over by nervous colleagues who have decided he is a dead and walking leader?
Sure (for now)
Before anyone who opposes the Labor government and disdains Albanese’s performance becomes too optimistic, here’s why I think he is secure in his job (for now) and unlikely to lose the next election despite the failures so clearly shown.
Internally, Albanese has its party room numbers perfectly arranged. The warrior of the left faction has isolated the only member of the left capable of defeating him. Tanya Plibersek does not have the support of his faction.
On the right, the only viable alternative at the moment is Treasurer Jim Chalmers. But he is not particularly liked within the right faction, especially within the powerful New South Wales right. In fact, they hate it.
And as Treasurer, Chalmers has presided over the economy at a time when voters don’t believe the government is doing a particularly good job on that front.
In short, Albo’s failures on these central issues are also Chalmers’ fault. A shared responsibility that undermines the argument for replacing one failure with another.
Internally, Albanese has its party room numbers perfectly arranged. Tanya Plibersek (right) does not have the support of her own faction
As for the election, even if Albanese’s popularity continues to decline, Dutton needs to overcome the annoying presence of Teal MPs.
In their once-prestigious, prosperous Liberal seats, their popularity as local MPs is underpinned by reflections on everything from climate change to championing diversity. Dutton’s weaknesses in the eyes of Teal voters.
While it is easy to see Labour’s 78-seat majority plummeting to 60, thus taking away the government’s majority, it is difficult to see the Coalition lifting its current 54 seats to more than around 60.
That would leave Labor with a larger number of MPs in the lower house and therefore in a position to argue that it is in a better position to form a minority government, with the backing of the Greens and also some of Teal’s MPs. .
Tanya Plibersek does not have the support of her faction… The powerful New South Wales right hates Jim Chalmers
It would be an unpleasant victory and a precursor to a destabilizing second three-year term for the Labor Party.
But it’s hard to imagine Dutton doing better than that result in the next election.
And if Labour’s scare campaign over nuclear power has an effect, that alone could be enough to convince disaffected voters to reluctantly give the government a second chance.
The problem for Albo is that a narrow victory like the one mentioned above virtually guarantees that he will not survive his second term as prime minister.
It will be up to the Greens to govern, which is hardly an antidote to voter dissatisfaction with Labour’s economic management credentials.
And such a defeat for Dutton would be considered good enough to give him a second chance, in the same way that Abbott got a second chance after narrowly losing the 2010 election to Gillard. Three years later he became prime minister.
Are we about to witness history repeat itself? Perhaps, unless the government has a cunning plan to get out of the quagmire it finds itself in.