Anthony Albanese is seeking a snap election in the hope of securing a second term before the economy worsens and avoiding the risk of another interest rate rise in September.
The date you are looking at is Saturday, August 31st.
While there was strong speculation at Canberra’s Midwinter Ball this week that the Prime Minister could go to election in mid-September, that would risk a rise in interest rates in the middle of the campaign.
Both Scott Morrison in 2022 and John Howard in 2007 had to endure rate hikes during their election campaigns. Both lost their re-election bids.
After a dozen rate hikes in the first term of this Labour government, another one in the election campaign would be a devastating blow that Albo will want to avoid at all costs.
Writs for an election must be issued 33 days before polling day, meaning the Prime Minister is eyeing the last weekend of this month, July 27 and 28, to visit his newly appointed Governor-General Sam Moystn and dissolve parliament.
MPs and senators have already gone home for the winter recess, and parliament will not resume until mid-August. That will not happen if the prime minister decides to call an election on August 31. It may not even happen if speculation about a September election turns out to be true.
Some within Labour are concerned about the possibility of a rate rise in August, a reason not to rush ahead.
Anthony Albanese is considering calling a snap election, with the date he wants to get Australians to the polls on is August 31.
But those close to the prime minister are far more worried about a rise in September. They believe the Reserve Bank would be less likely to raise rates during an August campaign than in September, when the economic case for rate hikes appears to be stronger.
New inflation figures are due to be released in early August, but the Australian Bureau of Statistics will receive the figures earlier, allowing the Prime Minister and Treasurer to analyse them before committing to an election.
If the figures are significantly worse than expected (which would raise the chances of a rate hike in August, even in the middle of a campaign), the prime minister could choose to delay his plans to call an early election.
First-term governments often go to the polls early. Malcolm Fraser did so in 1977, and so did Bob Hawke in 1984. John Howard ran for early election in 1998.
The federal Labor government is not due for re-election until May next year, but that would interfere with the Budget timetable.
It also risks the country falling into recession and homeowners suffering rate rises before then, which would not help Labour’s chances of retaining its majority.
The prime minister has privately told aides that while he expects to win the next election, he also believes he is unlikely to retain Labour’s parliamentary majority, forcing him to negotiate with independent MPs to form a minority government.
Currently, the Labour Party holds 78 seats in the 151-seat House of Representatives, compared to the Coalition’s 57. The remainder are made up of the Green Party, Conservative Party and Independent parties. The size of the House of Representatives will be reduced to 150 seats at the next election, meaning 76 seats are needed to form a majority government.
The Prime Minister has privately told close associates that while he expects to win the next election, he also believes it is unlikely he will retain Labour’s parliamentary majority. Above, in conversation with Treasurer Jim Chalmers
Although early election talk has largely focused on holding one later this year (after the football finals) or early next year, both options would conflict with other election campaigns.
Queenslanders go to the polls in late October, the US presidential election is in November and Western Australia’s state election is in March next year.
If Albanese sticks to his plan to face voters on August 31, he will avoid having the federal election campaign coincide with any of these other campaigns.
But that would mean calling elections in just three weeks.
The Prime Minister has cancelled plans to travel abroad later this month for the Nato conference, and has adjusted approval processes for ministers so that all new spending must go through his office, not just the Cabinet’s expenses committee.
This has all the hallmarks of advance election planning.
However, Victorian Labor has yet to announce all of its candidates for the federal election, even for the seat of Deakin, held by the ultra-marginal Liberals. The redistribution has dramatically improved Labor’s chances of winning the seat and helped offset losses elsewhere, such as in Western Australia.
Senior federal Labor figures in Queensland are also concerned about holding an election before their state election, as doing so could see the stench of state Labor impact the federal Labor vote.
But it is a risk Albo is willing to take, unless the next inflation figures are too bad and force him to switch to Plan B.
Another advantage of going early for Albo: it would expose the lack of detail around opposition leader Peter Dutton’s nuclear policy. Above, with his wife Kirilly at the Mid-Winter Ball last week
Going to the polls early would allow voters to take advantage of the Stage Three income tax cuts that took effect July 1 and be the result of a $40 million taxpayer-funded advertising campaign currently underway to sell their value to voters.
The Prime Minister is also understood to believe that a snap election would expose Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s lack of detail around his nuclear policy. Cost calculations and modelling have not yet been published.
Now that opinion polls have tightened, senior Labour strategists are concerned that the longer the election campaign waits, the greater the chance that the failures of the first term will be exposed.
Another risk is that a lack of discipline will seep into the ranks, eroding the chances that voters will do what they have done since 1931: give a first-past-the-post government a second term.
While August 31 remains the deadline for an early election, the fallout from first-term WA Senator Fatima Payman crossing the line on the Palestine issue and defecting from the Labor Party has been an unwelcome distraction.
It came just as the Prime Minister had hoped all attention would be focused on the cost of living relief being implemented to help improve the government’s standing with voters.
Albo’s advance planning for a snap election helps explain why he is reacting so badly to Senator Payman’s conscience vote: initially trying to downplay it before overreacting and forcing her to leave the party.
He will be watching closely in the coming weeks in the hope that interest in his saga wanes and voters focus more on the financial aid the government has provided them.