France voted yesterday for the political abyss. Far from making the far right the largest party in Parliament, as expected, the French gave first place, according to exit polls, to the far left. Almost nobody saw it coming.
But no party or group managed to come close to an absolute majority, which will make the formation of a stable government difficult, if not impossible. The result is a recipe for confusion, chaos and weak governance.
The traditional French response when Marine Le Pen’s populist National Rally party does well in the first round of elections, as happened last Sunday, – to unite against it in the second round – was more effective yesterday than anyone expected.
Instead of coming in first, but without an absolute majority, he came in a poor third.
But the real surprise of the night was the success of the New Popular Front, an alliance of various shades of the left, which came in first, to everyone’s surprise.
President Emmanuel Macron has defied predictions and managed to assemble a left-wing alliance to keep the far-right party at bay, but France now faces a hung parliament.
Marine Le Pen’s populist National Rally party did well in the first round of voting but failed to secure a majority.
Supporters of the French left-wing Socialist Party (PS) look at a screen displaying the first results of the second round of France’s legislative elections during the party’s election night event in Paris on July 7, 2024.
President Macron’s centrist group came in a comfortable second place, the second surprise of the night, relegating the National Rally to third place and completing a hat-trick of surprises.
The French political establishment was congratulating itself last night on having crushed Le Pen’s party once again, but the problems have only just begun.
Jean-Luc Melenchon, the French Jeremy Corbyn, but nastier and even more extreme, went on the radio just after the exit polls were in to demand that his New Popular Front be given unlimited power to implement its far-left manifesto, even though the Ifop exit poll projects it will only have between 180 and 215 seats in the National Assembly. 289 are needed for a majority.
Of course, Mélenchon will not get away with it, but what will happen? The Popular Front was formed only a few weeks ago and includes some respectable socialist and ecological politicians.
But it is largely a collection of far-left supporters of Mélenchon who have always existed: communists, Trotskyists, anti-fascists and other agitators.
It is hard to imagine how Macron’s centrist group could reach any kind of coalition agreement with them.
The Popular Front is dominated by activists who loathe Macron and were elected on a platform that seeks to undo almost everything he has done since taking office in 2017.
The New Popular Front itself may have a shorter shelf life than Liz Truss as Prime Minister. It is made up of exactly the 57 varieties of left who are quick to quarrel with each other, especially when asked to make concessions.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (pictured) said he would offer Macron his resignation on Monday but was ready to serve “as long as duty demands”.
Jordan Bardella, president of French far-right National Rally (RN) party, delivers a speech on stage after partial results of the second round of French snap parliamentary elections in Paris, France, July 7, 2024
Protesters light smoke flares in reaction to the projected results after the second round of legislative elections, in Lyon, central France, Sunday, July 7, 2024.
A crowd holds a giant national flag reading “France is the fabric of migration” and a banner reading “Stop genocide” during an election night event following the first results of the second round of France’s legislative elections at the Place de la République in Paris on July 7, 2024.
Tear gas is fired into the street during clashes between security forces and protesters following an event on election night, following the first results of the second round of France’s legislative elections in Rennes on July 7, 2024
Supporters light red flares during the election night of the left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI) following the first results of the second round of France’s legislative elections at La Rotonde Stalingrad in Paris on July 7, 2024
Although Macron’s centrists have performed better than expected, he is now a failure, presiding over a futile coalition-building scheme and doomed to spend his remaining three years in the Élysée Palace as an increasingly irrelevant figure.
The National Rally is the big loser of the night.
While Macron’s fall was predictable, his third place was not, but he may have dodged a bullet.
Trying to form a minority government would have been a debilitating experience. Macron would have acted much more forcefully, undermining him at every opportunity. The left would have fomented trouble in the National Assembly and on the streets, which can always count on a role in French politics, a legacy, perhaps, of its revolutionary tradition.
The bond markets will give their own verdict, which will not be pleasant. These are the markets to which the French government turns to borrow. The country is already in debt to the tune of 3 trillion euros.
Last night’s winner wants to add hundreds of billions of dollars more debt to lower the retirement age, raise the minimum wage and spend more on every possible social program, in a country where the state already accounts for 56%, yes, 56%, of GDP. The markets will not be impressed.
For all the celebrations on the left, France now has a hung parliament, dooming it to political paralysis or worse for the foreseeable future: an outgoing president and a parliament that will be so consumed by battles between the far left and right that a coalition government will likely be impossible.
Welcome to Back to the Future, French style. The Fourth Republic, created after the Second World War, only lasted from 1946 to 1958. During its 12 years of existence, there were 21 governments.
Asked what he had been doing in Paris, the late, great Peter Sellers memorably replied: “I’ve been talking to one of the governments of France.”
General Charles de Gaulle, the wartime leader in exile in London and the most important French leader since Napoleon, changed all that in 1958 by creating the Fifth Republic, with a strong president and a small National Assembly. When he designed it, he had himself in mind as president, though the Fifth Republic has endured to this day.
After yesterday’s elections, France will look much more like the weak and chaotic Fourth Republic than the stronger and more stable Fifth.
What exactly awaits it now – apart from instability, confusion and even chaos – we cannot yet perceive. Nor can we say when it will return to something more normal – or what state it will be in when that happens. But nothing good can come out of France in its current state. As it stares into that abyss, fear for the country’s future.
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