European leaders woke up yesterday morning to a likely prospect that most of them find terrifying and would rather not contemplate: Donald Trump as the next president of the United States.
Now they must prepare for the disruptions that will come when it comes to American support for Ukraine, backing of NATO, penal tariffs on their exports to the US, and whatever surprises the unpredictable Trump has up his sleeve that he hasn’t told us yet.
The election was already going Trump’s way, as every public appearance by a hesitant and confused President Biden only confirmed what most Americans had already concluded — that he was unfit to run for reelection — and Democrats lacked the courage to do anything about it.
But Saturday night’s failed assassination attempt at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania makes a Donald Trump victory more likely than ever.
Donald Trump raises his fist to the crowd after a bullet pierced his ear yesterday in Pennsylvania
Trump had blood running down his cheeks as Secret Service agents placed him on the ground.
Several American friends and sources contacted me overnight to say they thought Trump would win by a landslide. And they were not Trump supporters: they were all Democrats or “never Trump” Republicans.
Biden’s team planned to make liberal use during the campaign of that famous mugshot of Trump taken in a Georgia jail last August after he had been indicted on racketeering charges, among other charges, while reminding everyone that he was already a convicted felon.
I remember writing at the time something to the effect that this would be the defining image of the 2024 presidential election.
Not anymore. That accolade now goes to Trump, shaking his fist in the air, his face splattered with blood, shouting “Fight, fight, fight” as he was rushed off the stage by the Secret Service when he was less than an inch from death. There was even a huge American flag conveniently waving in the background.
For Trump and his MAGA movement, this will now be the totemic image of his candidacy. It will remind his true supporters of the iconic image of US Marines planting a huge flag on a hilltop after the brutal battle to seize the island of Iwo Jima from the Japanese in early 1945.
But that famous photograph involved an element of staging (a smaller flag had previously been raised at the site). The powerful image of Trump is entirely authentic. No one can dismiss it as fake news.
The central theme of Biden’s campaign, which is widely promoted by his many supporters in the media, is that Trump is an existential threat to democracy. It is a typical example of the heated rhetoric that dominates debate on both sides of the political divide in the United States these days.
But it will be much harder to apply that line credibly against a political candidate who came so close to losing his life campaigning in a democratic contest.
The shooting (in which, let us not forget, one person was killed and two seriously injured) has prompted predictable calls for the US to curb its hateful and hostile political discourse, in the same way that the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox during the Brexit referendum in 2016 prompted calls for a more civil debate in our politics.
I suspect that these appeals will have even less success in the United States than in Britain.
President Biden and his Democratic predecessor in the White House, Barack Obama, were quick to condemn “political violence,” though their comments were superficial and devoid of any genuine outrage. Curiously, neither of them dared to use the words that would have adequately described what had happened: an assassination attempt.
Far from cooling the situation, the United States is already awash with crazy conspiracy theories, fueled by the incompetence of those who are supposed to protect Trump in allowing a 20-year-old with a semi-automatic rifle onto a rooftop overlooking the rally.
The shooting has prompted predictable calls for the US to curb its hateful and hostile political speech, writes ANDREW NEIL
The Secret Service’s chaotic efforts to evacuate Trump after the shooting only increased the loss of trust.
His ineptitude was on full display in a remarkable BBC television interview that aired on all American television networks, in which a witness said he had warned police and security officers that there was a shooter on a nearby rooftop. The Secret Service’s chaotic efforts to evacuate Trump after the shooting only contributed to the loss of trust.
Conspiracy theorists take this as proof that the whole thing was a deep state effort involving the FBI and Secret Service to take out Trump (the MAGA camp view) or that it was all staged by MAGA operatives to boost Trump’s electoral chances (the crazy left view).
Such nonsense hardly merits a second’s attention, but the Secret Service and its associated law enforcement agencies are facing a terrible reckoning. There are already calls for the resignation of its director.
Biden will be relieved that his failure to run again is no longer in the headlines, but it is a temporary relief. The pressure to find a candidate who can beat Trump is more urgent than ever, though it may now be unassailable no matter who the Democrats field as their nominee.
In fact, some Democratic candidates might think it would be wiser to sit out this particular presidential election cycle. After Saturday night, it appears Democrats have run out of good options.
And time is ticking. The Democratic convention is just five weeks away, and unless the rebels who want to “dump Biden” act quickly in the next ten days, they will run out of time to make the necessary arrangements to turn Chicago into an “open convention” beauty pageant of alternative candidates.
Police stand next to the body of suspected shooter Thomas Matthews Crooks
Biden would simply be confirmed as the default candidate, since most of the delegates belong to him and can only be released if he drops out of the race. A few days ago, Biden said: “It’s time to put Trump on the spot,” confirming that his capacity for making mistakes is unlimited.
As leaders of America’s allies — and enemies — try to understand the implications of a Trump presidency, all eyes will be on the Republican convention in Milwaukee tomorrow.
Trump was always supposed to be an uncontested coronation. Now it will be an emotionally charged, historic event, designed to propel him unapologetically into the White House, and watched not just by the United States but by the world.
In 1984, I was at the hotel next door to the Grand in Brighton for the Conservative annual conference, the night the IRA blew it up in a failed attempt to assassinate Margaret Thatcher.
She insisted on heading to the conference first thing in the morning, even though she had nearly been killed and had to be evacuated in the middle of the night to a safe base.
By the time we gathered in the conference room, all the world’s media correspondents in London had already joined us. The Iron Lady arrived punctually to a sober but warm and emotional reception.
She spoke with authority and calm, without bitterness or bluster, only with an unwavering determination to defend democracy. It was the speech of the leader of a proud nation, not that of the leader of a party.
If Trump can rise to the occasion in Milwaukee, he will be truly unstoppable in November. If he succumbs to anger, exacerbates division and makes ridiculous accusations against Democrats, he may remain vulnerable.
In 1912, another presidential candidate, Teddy Roosevelt, spoke in Milwaukee. Like Trump, he had barely begun his speech when he, too, was hit by an assassin’s bullet, which lodged in his chest. But Roosevelt was a tough guy (he once boasted that he felt as strong as a bull moose) and decided he would finish his speech, which lasted 84 minutes.
Like Trump, Roosevelt had already been a Republican president, but he now led a splinter party called, appropriately, the Bull Moose Party. Third parties never win in America. Trump’s test this week is somewhat less onerous.
The bullet only grazed his right ear and he continues to lead the Republicans. It seems that only his own darkest demons can stop him from becoming the next president of the United States.
So far, in the aftermath of the shooting, he has remained remarkably restrained. He must remain that way even in front of his loyal supporters in Milwaukee, for whom he is now a living martyr of the MAGA movement.
