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We live in an era of uncertainty. Not only because of global threats to societies, but many face unprecedented insecurity on a personal level, particularly the younger generations. None of us know what is going to happen and we better face it. And that’s the first lesson in making predictions: Don’t make predictions. That is, don’t just guess what will happen. Instead, embrace uncertainty and turn it into an opportunity. Here’s how:
Think fast and slow about uncertainty
Uncertainty is a “conscious awareness of ignorance.” It is a personal relationship with anything we do not know; we can ignore what is happening right now or what will happen in the future. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman identified two broad ways of thinking; using our quick, unconscious, visceral reactions, or solving a problem slowly and deliberately. It’s usually okay to think quickly ahead: when we’re driving or choosing a movie to watch. But for important decisions, it’s best to take our time.
Evoking possible futures
The first step in slowly thinking about the future is to visualize how things could develop. Organizations can create scenarios that reflect optimistic and pessimistic outcomes, and can use a “red team” to deliberately think about what could go wrong. The UK Ministry of Defense even employs science fiction writers to bring some imagination to possible futures.
Individually, you might adopt a “red team mentality,” where you consciously criticize our standard view, whether you’re the type that tends to see the bright side or expect the worst.
The problem with simply using words to describe uncertainty
Vague talk about uncertainty is easily misinterpreted. It is easy to say that something “might” or “might” happen, or even that it is “likely” to happen. But what do these words really mean? In 1961, the CIA was planning the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba to overthrow Fidel Castro’s revolutionary government, but the Joint Chiefs of Staff considered the chances of success to be only 30 percent, or 70 percent. chances of failure.
This was reported as a “fair” opportunity, which they thought would be interpreted as “not very good.” But President Kennedy read the word optimistically and approved the invasion, which was a complete fiasco and pushed Cuba even further into Soviet influence.
Putting numbers to our ignorance
Events like the Bay of Pigs disaster have encouraged intelligence agencies to align words with approximate numbers. For example, if someone in the The UK intelligence service states that an event is “likely,“This has an official interpretation of between 55 and 75 percent chance. A similar scale is used in climate science, where a “very likely” event means 90 percent to 95 percent.
As individuals, we might try to rank possible futures in terms of their probability and then give them some rough magnitudes—say, getting a particular job is a “2 out of 10” event. With a little imagination, we could think of all our possible future trajectories shooting out like spaghetti; and in about 20 percent of them, you will get the job.
What characterizes a good forecaster?
“Superforecasters” can assess good probabilities for the future, where “good” means (a) they are “calibrated,” so that when they say “70 percent probability,” those events occur in about 70 percent of the cases. , and (b) they are “discriminatory”, so that there is a tendency to give high probabilities to the events that happen. They are generally open to new knowledge and happy to work as a team, have insight into their own thinking and all their biases, and have the humility to recognize uncertainty, admit mistakes and change their minds. They are similar to Isaiah Berlin so-called “foxes”, willing to adapt to new evidence, rather than “hedgehogs”, stuck in a single way of thinking.
Recognize the unknown
Donald Rumsfeld immortally described “the known, the unknown and the unknown,” those things that were beyond our imagination and had not even been thought of. When we recognize this possibility, it is known as “deep uncertainty,” when we can’t even list the possible futures, even with a red team mentality. However, Rumsfeld did not include the “unknowns,” those assumptions we make without even thinking. These can be the most dangerous delusions, and that’s why we need critical friends to help us get off our fixed trams.
Be prepared to be surprised
In 1650, Oliver Cromwell’s army was camped outside Edinburgh and was trying to persuade the Scottish Church to withdraw its support for the return of Charles II. Cromwell wrote: “Is then all that you say infallibly according to the Word of God? I beg you, in the womb of Christ, think that it is possible that you may be wrong.” This appeal was ignored and Cromwell soundly defeated the Scots at the Battle of Dunbar.
“Cromwell’s Rule” It means that you must think like a fox, and at all times have the humility to think that you may be wrong. By simply considering a small probability of being wrong, you can quickly adapt to new and surprising information.
The role of luck
Things can go right or wrong for you, largely due to factors outside your control, i.e. luck. Philosophers have identified three main types. Constitutive luck: who you were born with, your time and place in history, your parents, your genes, your innate characteristics, and your early education. This is extremely important: you must make the most of the hand you were dealt at birth. Circumstantial luck: being in the right place at the right time, or in the wrong place at the wrong time. Resulting luck: how things happened to you at that moment.
But not everything is out of their control: “lucky” people take advantage of opportunities, have positive expectations and are resistant to things going wrong.
Living with uncertainty
Uncertainty is part of being human, and few of us want to know what we will get for Christmas, what the result of a recorded soccer match will be or even, if possible, when we were going to die. Uncertainty is inevitable and we can react to that awareness of ignorance in various ways: we can feel anxious or excited, hopeful or fearful, depending on the circumstances and our personal tolerance for not knowing.
We cannot avoid uncertainty. But with a little slow thinking we can accept it, be humbled, and even enjoy it.