Now that the major highlights of the offseason have passed, attention has turned to what is actually possible for the upcoming NFL season. The new generation of NFL head coaches will take the stage soon and there has been a tumultuous history with first-year head coaches in recent years.
Seven coaches have been hit with the dreaded “one and done” label since the 2018 season and the The idea of coaches being fired after one season isn’t all that unusual. like it used to be. Carolina’s Frank Reich was the last, losing his job after 11 games in 2023.
Here’s a look at the new head coaches and what could trip them up and end up in the saddest fraternity in the NFL.
(It’s unlikely any of these guys will get fired, so take comfort in this.)
Look, Commanders fans may not like this idea, but Quinn is walking into a volatile situation. As noted in the introduction, it’s unlikely that any of these head coaches will be fired during or immediately after Year 1, but there are a few things working against Quinn, mainly that he wasn’t the first choice of the new ownership group that recently purchased the Comandantes. It was incredibly clear that the Commanders were in complete agreement with Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson before he decided to stay in Detroit. Quinn may end up being fine long-term, but a rookie quarterback on a bad team with a shaky offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) isn’t the most stable foundation to be on. There’s plenty of room for improvement from the Commanders’ 4-13 record from a season ago, so Quinn may not have to jump too high to impress people.
The scenario in which Morris gets fired is simple: Kirk Cousins has such a bad season that the Falcons end up in the top five of next year’s draft. It’s unlikely, but Morris has accepted a job that comes with considerable expectations, even though the Falcons spent the eighth overall pick in the draft on Michael Penix Jr., a quarterback who is not expected to play this year. The Falcons have gone 7-10 the last three years and the addition of Cousins is expected to take them back to the playoffs for the first time since the 2017 season. That’s a lot of pressure for a new head coach, as team owner Arthur Blank shows that he is running out of patience with the lack of success in the organization.
Mayo probably has one of the smallest risks of being a one-off product. The only way this could happen is if the Patriots put together a season on par with what the Panthers did last season. Mayo will have a long leash, especially if Drake Maye is the player many believe him to be.
Talking about the Panthers! Given the recent upheaval and turnovers involving quarterback and head coaching situations during the David Tepper era, nothing is off limits here. The Panthers have to choose stability at some point, though, right? Even if it’s just for the sake of it. They’re locked into Bryce Young at least through the 2024 season, so Canales should have security beyond this season, even if it’s a disaster. Tepper can’t afford to hire another head coach in 2025. Well, he can, but you know.
Callahan being a one-and-done player would be surprising given how the Titans have set themselves up to be competent this offseason. This is not a bad team and they have tried to give Will Levis a chance to be successful with the moves they made this offseason. Callahan is in the same boat as Mayo, where it would take an unforeseen season-long catastrophe for him to lose his job.
Pierce is in a slightly different situation because he was the interim coach last season during a raise that ended up landing him the full-time job. In fact, he could be at risk here if the Raiders slide (possibly given their quarterback spacing) and take a few steps back from last year because he is familiar with the program. He will take full control for the first time, but he is not new to the Raiders.
The Seahawks would have waited forever for Macdonald. He is immune to getting fired this season.
The only way Harbaugh loses his job this season is if he scares everyone with his meat and milk habits. He will have an incredibly long handle to do this job, which makes sense given his strong track record as a head coach.
