America’s fastest-growing state is expected to add another million residents over the next two decades.
South Carolina is projected to see its population grow to 6.4 million by 2042, according to the latest projections.
The state has a strong job market that recovered quickly from the pandemic and a relatively low cost of living that has already attracted large numbers of new residents.
The trend is expected to continue, although some experts suggest the increase may be an underestimate.
The boom is likely to be concentrated in just five counties, and most of them will see declining numbers of residents.
South Carolina is projected to see its population grow to 6.4 million by 2042, according to the latest projections.
The largest influx is forecast for Horry County, with an expected increase of 53 percent equivalent to 216,662 more residents, Mail and courier services reports.
The coastal county has long been the fastest growing in the state and ties with trends for all South Carolina coastal counties that are projected to expand.
Additionally, Berkeley, Jasper, Lancaster and Spartanburg counties are forecast to grow by 49 to 51 percent.
South Carolina is the 23rd largest state in the country and had the fastest percentage change in population between 2022 and 2023.
A slightly negative birth rate was recorded, meaning that the population increase was due to people moving into the state.
Many new residents have been attracted by the low cost of living, which is six percent less than the national average, and also by the state’s thriving economy.
Home prices are about a fifth lower than the rest of the United States, while the state also boasts stunning natural beauty that makes it easy to get an affordable home with scenic views.
Despite projected growth, 25 of South Carolina’s 46 counties are expected to see a decline in resident numbers.
The boom is likely to be concentrated in just five counties, and most of them will see declining numbers of residents.
Rural counties are the most likely to experience population contractions: A dozen are projected to have fewer than 20,000 residents by 2042.
Among them is Allendale County, which is expected to lose half its population, leaving just 3,515 people.
“We hope that political leaders and the private sector will find this information useful in helping them plan for the future,” said Frank Rainwater, executive director of the state Department of Revenue and Fiscal Affairs.
“Population is the key factor affecting local areas.”
The forecast estimates that South Carolina’s population will expand by 19 percent over the next 20 years compared to 2024.
The last population forecasts for South Carolina were made in 2019. Previous attempts to model growth resulted in underestimates.
In 2003, Clermiston State University said the population of the Charleston metropolitan area would reach nearly 80,000 by 2030.
South Carolina is the 23rd largest state in the country and grew at the fastest rate in percentage terms between 2022 and 2023.
However, the milestone was reached a decade earlier than expected.
Rapid population expansion is generally seen as a positive, but it can put strain on services and infrastructure.
Some local governments have already passed measures to curb growth, while others are imposing fees to help moderate the impact.
As with all projections, the latest figures are subject to possible changes due to factors such as the emergence of new jobs, extreme weather events or migration changes.
