ALEX BRUMMER: Fear of a global shock

Meltdown: in 2008-9 after the financial crisis, central banks in the United States, Great Britain, Japan and later Europe adopted an extremely monetary policy to prevent catastrophe

Because the tenth anniversary of the big financial crisis is coming at us quickly, the thoughts have naturally turned to how and when the next meltdown will take place.

The seeds were sown in 2008-9 when central banks in the United States, Great Britain, Japan and later Europe took extreme monetary policy to prevent the catastrophe.

No one predicted that those measures of super-low interest rates and quantitative easing should stay in place for so long.

Now that the punch bowl of easy money is gradually being taken off the table, the consequences are felt all over the world.

Meltdown: in 2008-9 after the financial crisis, central banks in the United States, Great Britain, Japan and later Europe adopted an extremely monetary policy to prevent catastrophe

Meltdown: in 2008-9 after the financial crisis, central banks in the United States, Great Britain, Japan and later Europe adopted an extremely monetary policy to prevent catastrophe

The US economy and equity markets are protected by Trump's tax cuts, which has allowed US corporations to turn a blind eye to monetary tightening.

The Federal Reserve is on course to continue this year to a key rate of 2.5-3 percent.

It is to be expected that the rise in US exchange rates has strengthened the dollar (making life very difficult for oil importers) and has made the debt of the emerging markets very expensive for the free days.

The first shock waves were felt in countries where the political risk was greatest, especially Venezuela and Turkey.

But the contagion worsens every day. The Argentine peso has been in free fall, even though the reformist government of President Mauricio Macri is forced to swallow his pride and give the IMF a loan of $ 50 billion.

Under the weight of American economic sanctions, Iran has fallen back into a crisis.

The currency, the rial, has plummeted by two-thirds this year because the economy has been squeezed, banks have been weakened by capital flight and citizens' demand for US dollars has risen.

The departure of Jacob Zuma, the elimination of the cloud of corruption in South Africa, was hoped for, and his replacement by the reliable Cyril Ramaphosa would lead to an economic bounce.

But this week, South Africa tumbled into a recession and hit the edge. In Asia, the central bank of Indonesia had to dig deep to stabilize the rupiah after it had dropped to the lowest level in 20 months.

The IMF warns that 45 percent of the poorest countries are at great risk of debt crisis, which can only get worse because of rising US interest rates and the strong dollar.

The impact on emerging market equities was substantial, with a value of approximately $ 1 trillion (£ 770 billion) being wiped out in value since the beginning of the year.

All of this is starting to look a bit like 1996-97, when a crisis in the fast-growing Asian economies almost brought the United Kingdom and the West to a recession.

Getting the drawbridge down on cheap and easy money would never go smoothly.

Be prepared

Former Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King is right in claiming that the Bank of England was not the only one missing the run-up to the major financial crisis.

Fed chairman Alan Greenspan thought the risk was so well distributed that the world economy would be a safer place.

Instead, the new financial instruments exploded as cluster bombs. The European Central Bank lost its senses and increased the interest in the crisis.

The only voices on the sirens were those of the New York-based economist Nouriel Roubini and IMF guru Ken Rogoff, who tried to trouble central bankers with complacency.

It was always assumed that King was a Brexiteer, although his discretion meant that he concentrated on the dysfunction of the euro area. But it is difficult to argue with his conclusion that British politicians and officials have failed the negotiations and preparations for the Brexit.

The government may be unprepared, but the business community has followed the law of the Scouts. For example, Aston Martin has extended its engine chain to five days from three.

Banks have ensured that they are much less dependent on short-term financing than in the run-up to the crisis. And so on.

All this is not due to the government or Whitehall.

Great grace

No one can John & # 39; Studs & # 39; To accuse Studzinski of growing the grass under his feet. He switches jobs and moves seamlessly from Morgan Stanley to HSBC and Blackstone and now finances manager Pimco with $ 1.7 trillion (£ 1.4 billion) under management. It is sometimes difficult to remember who he is currently advising.

At the same time, Studs works tirelessly to support humanitarian goals & # 39; Remarkable.

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