The Labor Party is struggling to keep a key demographic on its side as problems in federal election polls continue.
A Newspolls analysis conducted during the last quarter of 2025 shows that voters aged 35 to 49, commonly mortgage holders who determine many swing electorates, are avoiding the Albanian government as next year’s elections loom.
Support for the Labor Party among this group has plummeted to 31 per cent during the October-December election period, down from 35 per cent in the quarter ending in June and 33 per cent in the quarter ending in September.
This has reduced Labour’s lead in this demographic, which is considered particularly sensitive to the cost of living and interest rate pressures, from 53 to 47 per cent six months ago to now being neck and neck with the Coalition.
The Coalition’s primary vote among this age group has increased to 37 per cent.
Peter Dutton’s opposition now leads in all age groups except the youngest voters.
In this group, Labor has been drawing voters away from the Greens and has a two-party preferential lead over the Coalition of 63 to 37.
Anthony Albanese’s government is losing support among the key group of voters aged 35-49.
The biggest advantage the Coalition enjoys among the age groups is 62-38 for those 65 and older.
New South Wales and Victoria appear to be the states most likely to decide the next election and neither bode well for Anthony Albanese.
Victoria has seen a five per cent swing against the Albanian government, with the Labor primary vote falling to 30 per cent since the 2022 election.
The Coalition’s primary vote increased from 36 to 39 per cent over the same period, meaning they have established level parity in that state on a two-party preference basis.
Anthony Albanese’s leadership approval rating in Victoria also fell from 46 per cent approval in June to 41 per cent today.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton (pictured with his wife Kirilly) has had good news in the polls in Victoria.
Meanwhile, his disapproval ratings rose from 48 per cent to 53 per cent over the same period, giving him a net rating of -12 in Victoria, which is the same as Mr Eutton’s.
The two-party preference contest in New South Wales has leveled at 50-50 and both parties have seen their primary vote increase by two points – the Coalition at 40 per cent and Labor at 32 per cent.
Meanwhile, support for the Greens has fallen two points to 10 per cent in New South Wales.
The Labor Party has gained support in Western Australia and its two-party preferred lead has increased to 54-46 compared to 52-48 in the last quarter.
Both the Coalition and Labor have lost primary votes in Queensland – the LNP fell two points to 41 per cent, while Labor fell one point to 29 per cent.
The Coalition has a 53-47 two-party preference lead in that state, which is slightly weaker than the 54-46 it had in the last quarterly poll.