As we approach the final day of what has been an exciting Premier League season, there is still plenty to play for, in what is shaping up to be a dramatic day at the bottom of the league.
The top rankings are now almost all confirmed, with Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United and Newcastle all secure a place in the top four, while Liverpool and Brighton will finish sixth and seventh respectively.
Jurgen Klopp’s side will now play in the Europa League for the first time since reaching the tournament final in the 2015-16 season, while Brighton’s 1-1 draw with Manchester City at the weekend latter confirmed that she will also be playing in the tournament for the first time in the club’s history.
The final European spot is still up for grabs, with Aston Villa (7th), Tottenham (8th) and Brentford (9th) all capable of securing a place in the Europa Conference League, based on Sunday’s results.
But it is at the bottom of the table that things will really heat up on Sunday with three giants of English football, Everton (17th), Leicester (18th) and Leeds (19th) all threatened with relegation.
A supercomputer has predicted that Leeds have a 3% chance of staying up this season
The IA also said Leicester will be relegated this season, giving them an 82 per cent chance of dropping out.
Software also backed Everton to stay up, giving the Toffees a 20 per cent chance of going down
Every club can mathematically survive the drop, should the results unfold on Sunday.
But according to OptaLeeds have just a 3 per cent chance of staying up this season, with their AI supercomputer also giving Everton a 79.6 per cent chance of staying up, with the computer backing Leicester to drop from the top flight, just two years old after winning the FA Cup.
The battle at the bottom
Things could have been very different before the final round of the Premier League had Leicester or Everton won last weekend.
The Foxes’ goalless draw with Newcastle could prove crucial in their hopes of staying on their feet and taking a point at St James’ Park, which has notably become a stronghold for the Geordies this season will be a huge blow for the side by Dean Smith.
It will be a worry for the Toffees as Leicester could gain confidence ahead of their final game of the season against West Ham, who are now safe from relegation but have their eye on their Europa Conference League final. against Sevilla next Wednesday.
But David Moyes’ side are no pushover, and given Leicester have recorded just one win in their last 13 games, Monday night’s draw against Newcastle being their first clean sheet in 22 Premier League games, the supercomputer says there is an 82.8 per cent chance of Leicester being relegated.
The outlook for Leeds, however, is much bleaker, with the supercomputer suggesting the Yorkshire side have a 97 per cent chance of relegation, with Sam Allardyce’s side succumbing to a 3-1 loss to West Ham at the weekend. .
But there is still a chance they could turn the tide, as they face a distraught Tottenham side on Sunday, who have won just five points from their last six matches.
According to Opta, the supercomputer has given Everton a 79% chance of survival, while Leicester’s survival probability is 17%, with Leeds at 3%.
Sam Allardyce’s (right) side succumbed to a 3-1 loss to West Ham last weekend and will face Tottenham on Sunday
Everton defender Yerry Mina (right) saved a last-minute equalizer against Wolves at the weekend to keep their hopes of avoiding the drop alive. They will play Bournemouth at Goodison Park
Leicester, meanwhile, drew against Newcastle last weekend and will face West Ham this Sunday.
Everton, meanwhile, are currently sitting outside the relegation zone and face Bournemouth at Goodison Park on Sunday.
Sean Dyche’s side have lost their last four meetings to Bournemouth worryingly, conceding three or more goals in each game, but the Blues have, according to Opta, just a 20 per cent chance of losing.
So what does each side have to do to stay upright?
Permutations of the relegation battle
Everton currently have the best chance of avoiding relegation.
The Toffees will remain standing if they:
- beat Bournemouth;
- draw at Bournemouth and Leicester fail to win and Leeds fail to win by three goals; Or
- lose to Bournemouth and Leicester and Leeds don’t win either.
Leicester are backed to finish in 18th place, but they still have a chance to stay up.
To do this, they will need:
- a win at West Ham and a loss at Everton.
Leeds have the slimmest hope of survival.
To stay standing, Sam Allardyce’s team must:
- beat Tottenham and see Everton and Leicester lose; Or
- defeat Tottenham by three or more goals, Everton drawing and Leicester failing to win.
There is a chance Leeds could still stay if Leicester win and Everton lose, with the two currently tied on 31 points, but they will need to swing from a nine-goal deficit in order to edge Leicester on goal difference.
Qualification for the Europa Conference League
At the other end of the table, Aston Villa, Tottenham and Brentford still have a chance to qualify for the Europa Conference League.
For Unai Emery’s side, a place in Europe next season might just be a just reward for his team’s excellent form this season.
After a blow early in the campaign, Villanis found themselves inside the relegation places after losing four games on the rebound, but after replacing Steven Gerrard with Emery in October, the club rose through the ranks until in seventh place.
They are currently in the driver’s seat in the battle for the final European spot, but could have been pushing for a Europa League spot had they not lost to Manchester United and Wolves earlier this month.
They face a tough game against Brighton on Sunday, while Tottenham, who have a point behind them in the eighth, take on relegation strugglers Leeds.
Tottenham are still close to securing European football next season after dropping out of the top four
Thomas Frank’s side face Man City this weekend and could skip Spurs and Villa to finish seventh
Unai Emery’s side could be rewarded with a Europa Conference League spot if they win this weekend
It’s been a tough end to the season for Ryan Mason’s side who have really struggled since Antonio Conte left the club, dropping out of the top four to eighth place.
Although European football is not to be lamented, it falls far short of the expectations of the club’s fans, who saw their side withdraw from the Champions League a few months ago.
Brentford, meanwhile, could also secure European football, with Thomas Frank’s side again this year doing better than 13th place last season, and could clinch a place in Europe with a win against Manchester City. .
It will be a tough question, but with City’s attention now on their next two cup finals, the Bees have a good chance.
Europa Conference League permutations
To finish seventh, AstonVilla need of:
- beat Brighton;
- draw at Brighton and see Tottenham and Brentford both lose; Or
- lose to Brighton and see Tottenham and Brentford lose as well.
Tottenham can finish seventh if:
- they beat Leeds and Aston Villa lose; Or
- they draw with Leeds and Aston Villa and Brentford both lose.
Brentford can finish seventh and qualify for the Europa Conference League if:
- they win against Man City and Villa and Spurs both lose.