Home Sports AFC championship game preview: Josh Allen and Bills try again to knock off Chiefs

AFC championship game preview: Josh Allen and Bills try again to knock off Chiefs

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Josh Allen and the Bills are trying to finally get over the hump and get to the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs dynasty continue on their path. (Yahoo Sports/Ambar Matsumoto)

The Buffalo Bills have tried to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs three times this decade. They are 0-3.

At least the Bills don’t have a history of four straight disappointments in big playoff games.

It’s easy to set the stage for a fantastic AFC championship showdown. In one corner are the Chiefs, chasing NFL history as they try to be the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. The dynasty continues to go strong, with a seventh consecutive appearance in the AFC championship game.

The Bills have never won a Super Bowl, although they have been contenders in recent seasons. The Chiefs have stopped them three times. Buffalo lost at Kansas City in the AFC championship game four years ago, lost a heartbreaking game after taking a lead with 13 seconds left in a divisional round game three years ago, then last season they finally got the Chiefs in home for a divisional round game and I lost that one too.

This reunion should produce another fantastic game. The outcome will change the legacies of both sides.

Arrowhead Stadium | Kansas City

6:30 pm Eastern Time

This game will air on CBS and live on Paramount+.

The Chiefs are favored, but not by much. Kansas City is a 2-point favorite at BetMGM. The line has gone from Chiefs -1.5 to -2 despite 58% of bets being placed in favor of the Bills. In the first meeting between the teams, a 31-20 Bills victory, Buffalo was favored by 2.5 at home. The game total is 47.5.

Josh Allen and the Bills are trying to finally get over the hump and get to the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs dynasty continue on their path. (Yahoo Sports/Ambar Matsumoto)

Since August, everyone understood that Travis Kelce would not be a workhorse during the age-35 season and would be saved for the playoffs. Then when it happened, everyone seemed surprised. Kelce, who had a 100-yard game all season, had 117 yards in the divisional round against the Houston Texans. It looks the same as last year, when Kelce had a fairly quiet regular season and then posted 355 yards and three touchdowns in the playoffs. Kelce had an even quieter regular season in 2024, posting a career-low 823 yards and averaging a career-low 8.5 yards per catch. Before last season, when Kelce was averaging 10.6 yards per reception, he had never had a season average lower than 12.2. The Chiefs understood his limitations, considering how little success tight ends his age have had. But based on last week, it looks like he has enough left to take another big step into the postseason.

Last week should change the way we view bills. The narrative, shaped by those rooting for Josh Allen over Lamar Jackson for NFL MVP, was that the Bills are a mediocre team that Allen moves on from. Then the Bills beat the Ravens last week and Allen had a pretty quiet game. Allen had only 127 yards passing and 20 yards rushing. It wasn’t bad, it’s just that the Bills had other ways to win. Realistically, Allen is going to play very well to beat the Chiefs. He had 262 passing yards and 55 rushing yards when the Bills beat the Chiefs in Week 11. But the Bills are more than just Allen. The Bills’ offense changed when they promoted Joe Brady to offensive coordinator midway through last season to run the ball more, and they do well with James Cook, who had 16 rushing touchdowns in the regular season. The Bills are not a great defensive team: 12th in EPA allowed per play16th in success rate, but they are good enough to keep the team in the game. Buffalo held the Chiefs to just 259 yards in the regular season meeting. Contrary to what you’ve heard, the Bills are a pretty good all-around team. And for this game they will probably also need Allen to play like an MVP to take it home.

Apparently, the Chiefs just need to make the game close. Kansas City has a 16-game winning streak in one-score games, which is an NFL record and also a mathematical miracle. While winning so many games in a row is a bit lucky, there is a reason for that. The Chiefs have been in so many pressure situations that they are well equipped to handle them. That gives them a big advantage in important games. While the Bills have the baggage of playoff failures in recent seasons, Kansas City thrives when the games get tough. The Chiefs will need to keep Josh Allen from breaking up too many game-changing runs, it would be ideal if Kansas City had a struggling running game, and it wouldn’t hurt to have someone like rookie receiver Xavier Worthy making some big plays. But the Chiefs have a huge advantage in the intangible parts of each game. That’s why every close match turns out in their favor. The Bills better make sure it’s not a close call at the end.

The Bills are probably the best team in this game. Lots of analysis, like DVOA either EPA per playI’ll tell you. Buffalo won the regular season meeting. But we’ve seen plenty of “better teams” lose to the Chiefs. It’s almost pointless to extrapolate the Chiefs’ regular season results to the playoffs; Last season proved that whatever flaws Kansas City shows ultimately doesn’t matter. The Chiefs simply find ways to win big games. So while it makes logical sense to pick the Bills to win the AFC championship and advance to their first Super Bowl in 31 years, many well-intentioned and well-thought-out picks against the Chiefs in the playoffs have had a familiar result. Bosses 23, Bills 17

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