A top pollster advised President Joe Biden to consider resigning as the Democratic presidential candidate if he continues to perform poorly in polls in August.
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver shared his analysis of the election during an interview on the Risky Business podcast with Maria Konnikova.
He said Biden, 81, was trailing in most swing-state polls, calling it a “very, very, very bad sign for his campaign.”
“If Biden is still struggling in August, he should consider stepping aside,” Silver wrote on X, sharing a video of his analysis.
A top pollster has advised President Joe Biden to consider resigning as the Democratic presidential candidate if he continues to perform poorly in polls in August.
Silver admitted that it would be very difficult politically for Democrats if Biden were to withdraw, but that it was something the party should consider.
“Either way, it’s not a great situation for the D’s, but you have to do your due diligence on it,” he said. “It’s an important election, obviously. Talking about it shouldn’t be taboo.
Biden’s behavior during a news conference with Kenyan President William Ruto on Thursday raised questions about his mental stability, as he repeatedly asked for stage directions and appeared surprised when reporters began shouting questions at him.
Silver’s analysis is related to a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey asking voters in swing states who they would prefer to take Biden’s place if he could not continue as the Democratic presidential candidate.
Poll choices included Vice President Kamala Harris, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker.
Forty-five percent of voters surveyed chose Harris, Whitmer and Buttigieg are tied at 36 percent, Newsom garnered 32 percent support, Moore garnered 23 percent, and Pritzker garnered 21 percent.
The vice president has stepped up her campaign travel in 2024, working to shore up support, especially in swing states.
In 2024, Harris visited North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin four times each, Georgia three times, and Arizona and Michigan twice.
The poll shows that voters in swing states are becoming more familiar with Harris and have already expressed their opinion of her.
While 45 percent supported Harris as Biden’s replacement, 46 percent of voters in the poll opposed Harris as a replacement, including 38 percent who strongly opposed her as an option.
Voters in swing states favored Vice President Kamala Harris to replace Biden over California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are tied at 36 percent.
Only 9 percent of voters said they didn’t know or had an opinion about Harris.
About 30 percent of voters in the survey said they did not know or have an opinion on Democrats like Whitmer, Newsom and Buttigieg.
More than 50 percent of voters had no formed opinion about lesser-known political figures like Pritzker and Moore.
Despite her struggles with voters, Harris expressed her willingness to fight in a recent interview with Mav Carter, manager and business partner of baseball star LeBron James.
“Elections and campaigning are like a fight, you know people are going to say, oh, it’s like a marathon, it’s like a marathon when people are throwing tomatoes at you every step of the way,” Harris said.
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll surveyed 4,962 registered voters in seven swing states online from May 7-13.