A new poll shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris with a slim lead in a state that a Democrat hasn’t won since 2008.
A Quinnipiac University survey The photo released Monday shows Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump in North Carolina.
Former President Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008, but no Democrat (including Obama four years later) has been able to do so since.
At the same time, Trump is leading Harris in Georgia, a state that President Joe Biden flipped to the Democratic column in 2020.
The poll found that in North Carolina, Harris leads Trump 49 percent to 46 percent, while in Georgia Trump leads Harris 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris (left) has a lead over former Republican President Donald Trump (right) in North Carolina, a state Democratic President Barack Obama won in 2008, while Trump is ahead in Georgia.
The two key Southern states are split in presidential preference, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading in North Carolina and former President Donald Trump ahead in Georgia.
In North Carolina, Green Party candidate Jill Stein was polling at 1 percent, while other third-party candidates were polling below that level.
In Georgia, independent progressive candidate Cornell West and Party for Socialism and Liberation candidate Claudia De la Cruz each received 1 percent support.
With independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. out of the race in most key states, third-party candidates are not having as much of an impact on the race.
When pollsters were only offering the option of Trump or Harris, in North Carolina the Democrat was still leading (50 percent to 47 percent) and in Georgia Trump still had the advantage (49 percent to 46 percent).
Harris’s lead in North Carolina is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent, while Trump’s lead in Georgia is just outside it.
Voting took place from September 4 to 8.
Trump and Harris will face off on the debate stage for the first time on Tuesday night in Philadelphia.
In both Southern states, which have historically voted for Republican presidential candidates in recent decades, there are wide gender and racial gaps: Men and white likely voters lean toward Trump, while women and voters of color lean toward Harris.
In Georgia, however, Trump is doing better among white voters and women than he is in North Carolina, which explains why Harris is ahead in the latter state.
Fifty-six percent of men in North Carolina support Trump, while only 38 percent support Harris, while 60 percent of women in the state want Harris, compared to just 37 percent of women.
Black likely voters are split 85 percent to 13 percent in support of Harris, while white voters are split 56 percent to 41 percent in support of Trump.
White voters in Georgia lean more strongly toward Trump: 68 percent to 28 percent.
Black voters in Georgia share a similar distribution to North Carolina voters: 68 percent to 28 percent.
The same percentage of men in Georgia support Trump (56 percent), while 37 percent of Georgia men back Harris.
The split among female voters in Georgia is 52 percent for Harris and 43 percent for Trump, meaning a smaller share of women are voting for Harris in Georgia than in North Carolina.