It’s the only thing in life that is guaranteed.
But knowing when you are going to die remains a mystery.
Now, experts could be one step closer to a “date of death” test after discovering that a simple cheek swab can accurately estimate your risk of dying over the next year by analyzing changes in DNA.
A team at Tally Health, a New York-based biotechnology company, has developed an epigenetic clock called CheekAge that is capable of calculating biological age from easy-to-collect cheek cells.
Instead of a person’s actual age, this looks at the age of the cells. Biological age can be affected by factors such as genetics, stress, sleep, nutrition and smoking, and may be older or younger than a person’s actual age.
Scientists have developed an epigenetic clock called CheekAge that is capable of calculating biological age from easy-to-collect cheek cells.
The scientists tested their method to see how well it predicted all-cause mortality in 1,513 women and men, born in 1921 and 1936, and followed throughout their lives.
The analysis revealed that changes in DNA were significantly related to mortality.
Participants in the highest CheekAge group were 148 percent more likely to die that year compared to those in the lowest group.
Their method was even more accurate than other epigenetic clocks that analyzed blood, the team said.
All of their findings were retrospective, meaning their method was tested on participants who had already died.
Future research could involve testing the method on people who are still alive, to see if it can accurately predict when they will die.
The team wrote in the journal Frontiers in Aging: “This implies that a simple, non-invasive buccal swab may be a valuable alternative for studying and tracking the biology of aging.”
However, other experts cautioned that this method cannot be used to predict the day or even the year that someone will die.
Adele Murrell, professor of Epigenetics at the University of Bath, said she sees no evidence that the CheekAge watch can predict the day or even the year that someone will die.
The changes in DNA are theoretically reversible, he explained, meaning the method would only be useful in warning people who may be heading for an early death.
“Given that these changes are the result of lifestyle choices (smoking, weight gain, poor diet, and lack of fitness) combined with underlying diseases (cancer, obesity, diabetes), all factors that are evident without epigenetic testing, It is not yet clear whether patients “will be more likely to change their lifestyle choices when faced with epigenetic clock data than when their GP warns them to do so,” he added.
Meanwhile, Dusko Ilic, professor of stem cell sciences at King’s College London, said: “These clocks actually provide probabilistic risk assessments rather than concrete predictions.
“Emphasizing mortality in this context may cause unnecessary anxiety and foster a fatalistic mindset in some people, rather than promoting practical knowledge about the duration of health and well-being.
“A more nuanced approach would be to frame CheekAge as a tool to assess biological age and associated health risks, encouraging interventions aimed at prolonging healthy aging rather than focusing on mortality.”
