If you were hoping for cooler, less humid weather after a record-breaking summer, you’re out of luck.
Experts say there’s a strong chance that nearly all 50 U.S. states will experience warmer-than-normal temperatures this fall.
Temperatures across the U.S. range from 20 to 90 degrees over the three months, but the forecast suggests much of the country will feel more like summer than fall.
The abnormally warm forecast may be driven by La Niña, a periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, experts said.
But global climate change is likely playing a role, too: average temperatures continue to rise every year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its seasonal outlook for September through November, showing higher-than-average temperatures across the country, when regions typically experience cooler weather.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outlook for From September to November, tThe Four Corners states (Colorado, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico) and New England are most likely to experience a warm fall, with a 60 to 70 percent chance of above-average temperatures.
NOAA considers monthly temperature or precipitation data to be above or below average if they fall within the top or bottom third of measurements taken between 1991 and 2020 for a given month.
Average fall temperatures vary by state, but in the Four Corners states, “normal” temperatures typically range from the high 40s to low 90s Fahrenheit.
In New England, the typical temperature ranges from 30 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit.
However, parts of the West Coast do have a greater chance of warmer-than-average fall temperatures, including parts of Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho and Alaska.
Typical fall temperatures in these states range from 20 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit.
The Midwest region is expected to experience above-normal temperatures and northern states, including North Dakota and South Dakota, and some of the Great Lakes states, tend to have above-average temperatures.
In the Midwest, fall temperatures typically range from 30 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit.
Several central U.S. states can also expect a drier-than-average fall, with New Mexico and southwest Texas likely to experience below-average precipitation.
In New Mexico, the average monthly rainfall from September to November ranges from 2.1 to 3.9 centimeters. In Texas, it ranges from 7.5 to 9.5 centimeters.
NOAA says there is a 50 to 60 percent chance that parts of these states will experience higher than average precipitation this fall.
Meanwhile, the East Coast and parts of Oregon, Washington and Alaska are likely to see above-average rainfall.
Fall weather across the country could be affected by La Niña when it arrives sometime between September and November.
It occurs every three to five years and tends to make fall weather warmer and drier than average.
But climate change is also causing record temperatures across the United States, experts say.
This year is already on track to dethrone 2023 as the hottest year ever recorded in Earth’s history, according to a report by Copernicus, the European Union’s climate change service.
The forecast for autumn comes after a record-breaking hot summer.
NOAA’s forecast for June through August showed at least 20 states across the Northeast and Midwest were in warm zones where temperatures were above normal.
Fall in the U.S. is when the weather turns cooler as winter approaches, but most of the nation will continue to feel the heat of summer.
The extreme heat was a result of El Niño, caused by a shift in the distribution of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator, which normally carries drier, warmer air to the northern United States.
By June, most of the United States had already experienced at least one major heat wave and millions of people were under heat alerts.
July offered no respite, with average temperatures well above average across much of the western and eastern United States.
Dozens of locations in the West and Pacific Northwest, including Nevada, Palm Springs and Medford, tied or broke previous heat records with temperatures well above 100 degrees.
July also saw the planet’s warmest day in recorded history.
